Research On The Housing Conditions And Demand Forecast Of Urban In Shanxi Province

Since the80’s of last century, the housing market create a good opportunity torelease people’s housing demand after Shanxi province responded the country started toimplement the reform of the housing system. Since then, the urban residents’ housingconditions has greatly improved and living quality improved rapidly. The spirit of theThird Plenary Session of the Eighteen indicates the direction for the development of thereal estate industry in the new period. In October,2013, the CPC Central CommitteePolitical Bureau learned the housing security system and the supply system of collectivelet the housing problem went to a higher level.The process of urbanization, the rate of economic growth, the land developmentcosts, the level of consumption, the demographic factors, the real estate policyformulation and implementation and other factors all affecting the real estate market. Inthe numerous factors, it is difficult to grasp economic and social factors because of itsuncertainty regularity, but demographic is relatively stable. As the internal factors,demographic factors affecting housing demand, only to master the changes inpopulation trends, we can understand the trend of changes in future housing demand.The latest national census in2010provides an opportunity to analysis of the currentpopulation housing situation. In view of this, the paper will take the cities and towns inShanxi Province as the research object, using the housing survey data of the sixthcensus, supported by yearbooks and bulletin data, according to the change of the urbanpopulation size and family structure to analysis the current urban housing situation inShanxi province.Based on the analysis of the overall situation, at the same time, comprehensive thequantitative analysis and demand prediction. Using the SPSS statistical software andrelated factors of single variable statistical analysis model, to prediction the12th FiveYear Plan and the13th Five Year Plan of Shanxi Province. Forecast2012-2020annualper capita housing construction area and new housing minimum demand in the end ofthe13th Five Year Plan. For the future supply of housing construction in Shanxiprovince to provide a number of reference. At the same time, from the outside to theinside found that the current real estate industry in Shanxi province is facing manyproblems based on the Shanxi urban housing situation and demand analysis. There is a large gap between people’s expectations and the situation; Shanxi province housingdemand gap is still large; the housing supply structure imbalance, supply less thandemand; living level serious imbalance phenomenon, living quality and comfort need tobe improved; housing stock market and the housing rental market development is notsound; affordable housing construction is facing great pressure.Based on the quantitative analysis and forecast, from the angle of demand, putsforward some suggestions for the government and enterprises engaged in real estatedevelopment. For instance, adjust the housing supply system, pay attention to thehousing problems of floating population, strengthen the guidance of financial tax toolson demand and explore the development of new estate.