Study On Risk Evaluation Method Of Natural Gas Long - Distance Pipeline Design

The risk assessment technology for pipeline, which is highly practical, has been developed abroad during1970s. Originally, the risk assessment technology was applied for newly-built as well as active pipelines. Although it reduced risks and expanded life span of pipelines, large number of accidents still happened in the late run. According to some analysis, improper design of pipelines was the lead for these accidents. Therefore, it is essential to develop a risk assessment technology for pipeline design in order to reduce the risks at the beginning of pipeline construction.According to the characteristics of natural gas pipeline design, risk assessment technology for pipeline design is divided into two types:risk assessment for organization management; and risk assessment for quality. First of all, fault tree analysis is used to determine risk type and weight of risk factor is decided by AHP. Secondly, fuzzy comprehensive analysis and calculation index system are used to calculate the possibility of pipeline failure, then severity of pipeline failure is determined by both economic loss as well as reputation loss. Finally, the severity level of these two types of risks is converted to risk distance through the weighted distance algorithm Kaufman and the concept of risk distance. Comprehensive risk level is the combination of these two types of risk distance.Meanwhile, risk control method for natural gas pipeline design is preliminary discussed in this article. The author established a compliance with engineering practice risk control workflow and came out with advice for risk control and mitigation method, which ensures a final pipeline design meet the risk criteria and safe operation in late run.