Study On High - Consequence Area Identification And Risk Assessment Of Natural Gas Long - Distance Pipeline

With the rapid increase of pipeline constructions and the city developments, more and more of the long distance pipelines pass through the area known as the high consequence areas, where populations and buildings are concentrated. The pipeline accidents in it will result in serious consequences. The explosion accident happened in Qingdao in November22nd and Kaohsiung gas explosion accident in July31st are lessons, which warn people paying attention to high consequence areas.Foreign governments have promulgated laws related to oil and gas pipeline in high consequence areas in early2000. After that, foreign related researches have come out, but China is lack of that. The purpose of this paper is to explore the recognition and classification of high consequence areas, which are suitable for Chinese conditions. It has practical significance for the research of high consequence areas in China.This thesis mainly includes the following contents:(1) According to the investigation datas which are from a typical long distance transmission pipeline, the characteristics of high consequence areas and its contribution rates are analyzed by factor analysis method. What’s more, recognition factors are figured out. It provides a theoretical basis for the division of recognition factors.(2) Based on the forces of nature gas, models of leakage, diffusion, fire, explosion about pipeline are built correctly. Combined with the fire and explosion accident injury criteria and national security accidents, PHAST software is used to simulate the effect of the scope of the accident.(3) High consequence areas and a new principle of pipeline section were puts forward. Population, building, special natural environment, economic are combined standardly by the Euclidean distance and TOPSIS method. After that, the identification model, recognition and classification method of high consequence areas are proposed.(4) On basis of pipeline risk management manual and risk factors of long distance natural gas pipeline provided by literature, the failure possibility of index system in the high consequence areas is established, which cares the importance of third party damage. According to the theory of fuzzy mathematics, failure probability is calculated leading, which overcomes the superposition index of low score ignored. It is significant to put forward method to determine the level of risk by the risk matrix, which combines the failure probability and the level of high consequence areas.The research method of this paper is used in some of west to east gas transmission pipelines, and the results are consistent with the operation status of them currently.