Traffic Carbon Emissions And Influencing Factors Analysis In Gansu Province

Since the industrial revolution, human activities produce greenhouse gases accumulating in the atmosphere. Climate change has not only scientific problems,and rose to global political, economic and social issues. Fossil fuel emissions of carbon dioxide in 2007, China is now more than the United States, as the world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide. Transportation as a basis for economic and social development, guiding and service industries, other sectors of the national economy is the normal operation of the premise, but also a prerequisite for a modern large-scale production. In recent years, the rapid development of Gansu Province, transportation,infrastructure, expanding the network layout and structure of continuous improvement,continuous development of all kinds of transportation, integrated transportation system to take shape, but Gansu Province transportation energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions but growing form of transportation is facing very serious.How while transportation development, the development of low-carbon transport industry is currently Gansu urgent problems.In this paper, a review of the relevant literature, combing and study abroad decomposition analysis of carbon emissions system and method development for2000-2012 in Gansu province’s transportation, energy consumption and energy-related carbon emissions and other elements of the measure and analyze use LMDI decomposition model of the factors affecting emissions of Transportation conducted a decomposition analysis, Gansu Province, to build a low-carbon transportation system to provide basic theoretical support. Through research shows that:(1)Since 2000, the transportation in Gansu Province had entered into a rapid development period. The rail, road, air transport route mileage had significantly increased. However, the area in Gansu Province was extensive and the demand of traffic area is vast in Gansu Province. Actually, transportation lines were low-density and the ability of transportation is insufficient. Obviously, transport obviously can not meet the needs of the current rapid economic and social development. During the period of 2000~2012, transportation energy consumption in Gansu provincial had increased speedily, the consumption of petroleum occupied 66% of all. So, the contracture of traffic energy was unreasonable.(2)During the period of 2000~2012, the total energy emissions of transportation in Gansu Province had increased, which raised 1.6005 million tones in 2000 to 2.9125 million tones in 2012. It increased by 82% during the studies. The carbon emissions of oil were a major component of consumer goods of all, which raised 1.0892 million tones in 2000 to 1.7587 million tones in 2012. The annual rate of growth was 4.2%.Per capita carbon emissions in transportation energy during the 12 years showed a rising trend. But, It presented dramatic fluctuation before 2004. And then, the figure for it was slight. The carbon emissions showed a downward trend, which dropped from 2.72 tones / million Yuan in 2000 to 0.92 tones / million Yuan in 2012., which dropped by 66.2%. Compared with the global transportation industry and the national average carbon intensity transportation carbon emissions,we can know that transport carbon emissions in Gansu was higher then the whole country,which strength the structural problems of transportation energy use and energy efficiency in Gansu Province.(3)In this paper, based on the figure in 2000, we use the LMDI model to analyses the change of carbon emissions in Gansu province. According to analysis, we know :①Carbon intensity of transportation in Gansu province took on decreasing trend.Energy intensity played vital role of all. Before 2008, changes of the energy structure contributed lightly to the drop of carbon emissions in Gansu province. But from 2008,the changes in the energy structure of the carbon intensity of the traffic decline have tiny contribution, but the impact of structural effects on traffic carbon intensity of energy is still very low. ②During the period of 2000~2012, carbon emissions of transportation in Gansu province showed a rising trend. the structural effects of energy,economic output and population scale effects promoted it dramatically, which presented a positive effect. And economic output effect contributed to it significantly.The energy intensity had negative effects on carbon emissions, which played inhibiting effect in it.(4)Based on the findings, drawing on experience in domestic and international transport of carbon emissions based on the proposed policy recommendations for transport carbon emissions in Gansu Province, in order for the relevant government departments to provide policy support for the theory. Specifically include①the policylevel: the adjustment of industrial structure, providing the foundation for industrial development of low-carbon transportation; optimizing energy structure, promote the development of low-carbon transportation; optimizing transport structure, building a low-carbon transport system; a reasonable guide residents of low-carbon consumption.② technical level: To improve the quality of transportation energy; the development of new energy transportation vehicles; improve traffic intelligence level. ③ institutional level: to strengthen the car I / M system; improve vehicle efficiency and carbon emissions market access barriers; elimination update mechanism driven vehicles.