Research On Major Industrial Accidents Consequences Predicting And Its Application In Safety Planning And Emergency Rescue

In recent years, the rapid development of industrialization in China brought a huge value of industrial output and benefit to the people. Yet on the other hand, the major industrial accidents are endless, which brought heavy casualties and serious economic losses to the country. Numerous studies of accidents indicate that major industrial accidents mainly caused by the following reasons: firstly, the lack of distance between the major hazard industrial installation and its neighboring sensitive areas or the unfulfillment of security planning; secondly, the inadequate preparation makes low efficiency, so that the consequence of accidents without further control expand the loss. In order to effectively reduce the impact caused by accidents and improve the level of safety planning and efficiency of emergency rescue, it is of great significance to to carry out the consequences prediction of major industrial accidents and research the method of Security planning on major industrial installation and emergency rescue. Therefore, This paper has carried out the following studies:(1) Proposed the main research content and technical route based on the background of research, domestic and foreign research situation and problems.(2)Studied the characteristics and the relationship between major industrial installation and major accidents, grasped and clarified the main object and its manifestation of the major industrial accidents from the overall, which laid a foundation for further research.(3) According to the manifestation of major industrial accident, on the basis of the analysis of different development mode and path include fire, explosion and poisoning, chose an accident case with major accident consequences, and gave the accident consequences forecasting analysis model in this accident scene(4) Described the contents and method of the security plan, and the most suitable security planning to the country based on of accident consequences predicting after a comparative analysis study to the safety planning methods. Mainly studied the safety planning process and its implementation according to the above method. Then took shenzhen qingshui river super-large and explosion accident in 1998 as an example, illustrated the application process of safety planning on accident consequences and its rationality.(5) Described the overview of the emergency rescue, then explore the logical relationship between the core elements of the scene rescue in emergency rescue and accident consequences prediction. Pointed out that the emergency rescue and emergency preparation can achieve the goal of highly efficient and targeted only based on the accident consequence predicting.Then took the epoxy ethane spreading and poisoning accident as an example to explain how the accident consequence predicting provide guidance and evidence for emergency rescue.The innovation of this paper is proposed security plan method and its planning process which suitable for our country, and established a logical dependencies relationship during the core elements of accident consequence predicting and emergency rescue. The results of this study have a practical significance in guiding the prevention and control of major industrial accidents.