Study On Factors And Prediction Of Carbon Emission In Guiyang City

Dealing with the global climate change and realizing the sustainable development of human beings have been the most serious challenges faced by humanity today. With the continuous deepening of the concept of low carbon development and national emission reduction plan of implementation, low carbon economy development to reduce carbon emissions has become the mainstream of international strategic choice. As the western underdeveloped region, Guiyang is rich in resources and its ecological environment is fragile. In recent years, with the rapidly development of social economic, the demand for energy use has increased gradually. In addition, the technical level is backward and industrial structure is not reasonable etc. Guiyang faces the dual pressures of development and reduction of emissions reduction. Under the background of the implementation of the industrial province and urbanization strategy, the task to achieve energy conservation and emissions reduction is more difficult.In order to analyze the emission reduction potential and put forward the corresponding policy to achieve low carbon development, the paper chose Guiyang as the study area. By using carbon emissions model, the factors influencing carbon LMDI decomposition model, STIRPAT carbon emissions prediction model based on scenario analysis, the paper analyzed the economic development of Guiyang and the decoupling relationship between carbon emissions, and then predicted the carbon emissions in different scenario between the "13th Five-Year" period in Guiyang by selecting the total economic output, industrial structure, energy structure, technical efficiency and other factors based on the estimation of carbon emission from 2007 to2013. The research showed that:(1)From 2017 to 2013, the average annual growth rate of total energy consumption in Guiyang is 9%(from 13.5351 million tons of standard coal to 22.701 million tons of standard coal); energy intensity, is with an average annual decline rate of 5.22%(from 1.89 tons of standard coal million to 1.37 tons of standard coal million).(2)Carbon emissions from 2007 to 2013 in Guiyang is with the annual growth rate of 5.41%(from 18.2682 million tons to 25.0661 million tons). And carbon emission intensity decreased from 2.55 to 1.52, with an average annual decline of 8.29%; from the perspective of energy species, carbon emissions from electricity and coal consumption are the main sources of carbon emissions in Guiyang. With the development of transportation industry, oil energy consumption has increased significantly. Carbon emissions generated from oil consumption has reached 3.2423 million tons in 2003, with an average annual growth rate of 28.57%. To reduce carbon dioxide emissions controlling of oil growth can’t be ignored.(3)Decomposition results showed that economic development and population factors contribute to the carbon emission in Guiyang. To a certain degree, technology, energy structure inhibited the carbon emission in the study area. From 2017 to 2013, economic effect of total volume is 14.7617 million tons of standard coal, the contribution rate is 217.15%, which is the decisive factor of the carbon emission.(4)The prediction results showed that, until 2020 the range of carbon emissions in Guiyang will be 0.36-0.47 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 5.58%-10.35%. According to the development, we can achieve the goal that carbon intensity can reduce 45% from 2005 levels by 2020. If all the factors develop in low carbon scenario, carbon emissions will reduce by 13.2945 million ton by 2020. And the technical efficiency effect is- 6.3108 million tce, which is the main reason to restrain the increase of carbon emissions in the study area.(5)Based on the result of the study, in the "13th Five-Year" period, In order to deal with climate change and realize low carbon development, Guiyang should develop low-carbon economy to achieve economic transformation; optimize the industrial structure to create a new format for the development of industry; adjust the energy structure to increase the use of new energy; accelerate technological progress to improve the efficiency of energy use and advocate green life to promote low carbon consumption.