Study On Passenger Volume Forecasting Of Airport Rail Transit

In recent years, with the rapid growth of air transport demand, airport throughput isincreasing. Compared to the other long distance travel, the flexibility, speed and travel cost ofair transport are more and it mainly serves passengers of higher time value, so, quickness is anecessary condition to improve its market competitiveness. In order to meet the increasingdemand for air transport, many cities are in new construction, renovation and expansion of theairports. But the new airport is usually far away from the central city, combined with theincreasingly congested rode traffic, which increases passengers’ travel time from and toairport and reduces overall travel efficiency. To reduce the constraints of airport landsidetraffic problems on the development of air transport, with its fast, punctual, large capacity andenvironmental protection, airport rail access method receives more attention and will be animportant transport between airport and urban. Passenger flow forecast, being different fromurban rail transit, is an important part of planning and building, so it is necessary to doin-depth research.Based on the existing typical airport rail transit at home and abroad, the article analyzesthe function of airport rail transit, the site layout, the cohesion way to airport and urbantransport and traffic characteristics. Analyzing the traffic composition and passengers’characteristics, based on the principle of “four stagers” prediction, fully considering of theairport rail transit characteristics, the paper puts forward the basic idea of passenger flowforecast. According to the composition and Spatial characteristics of airport passengers, thepaper proposes forecasting model of trip generation and trip distribution， use elasticcoefficient method and dual constrained gravity model to forecast the whole way OD of thepassengers along. On the basis of foreign airports survey data, it uses Qualitative Analysis andGray Correlation Method to analyze the factors of airport rail share rate, establishes utilityfunction, foretastes airport passengers travel mode choice by improved Logit model. Lastly,this paper forecasts and analyzes the passenger flow of the airport rail of Xi’an XianyangInternational Airport by the prediction method proposed above.