The Forecast Of Liaoning Energy Consumption Of Road Transport Based On System Dynamics

In the process of the development of modem society,energy has become an indispensable wealth.It is not only related to people's livelihood,but also related to national security,and it is the support of the national economy.As the industry with the highest energy demand of per unit output in China,the transportation industry has a long-term and serious threat to energy security of China,and also pollutes the environment due to the emissions.Road transportation is closely related to people's life because of its flexibility and universality.In this paper,it will be energy demand forecast and scenario simulation for road transportation system of Liaoning Province,which provides the theoretical basis for energy-saving and emission reduction,also for the development of green transportation in Liaoning Province.In this paper,firstly,determine the causal relationship among Liaoning province road transportation and social economy,population,passenger,freight turnover volume and energy demand system,and establish a causality diagram.Then,set up a system dynamics model of Liaoning provincial road transport energy demand system to forecast and scenario simulation.Finally,we will get some suggestions of energy saving and emission reduction for Liaoning according to the analysis.The prediction results show that the energy demand of road transport in Liaoning province will increase 12.3%during the "13th Five-Year" period.Passenger demand for energy will exceed freight traffic in 2017,and the gap will continue to increase.According to the plannings and development targets during the "13th Five-Year" in Liaoning Province,the scenario simulation results show:(1)When the GDP in 2020 compared with 2010 doubled,the demand for road transport energy consumption will increase by 3.7%during the "13th Five-Year" period,but the adjustment of industrial structure can affect the change of road transport energy demand,when the proportion of the third industry increased by 5%,the energy demand will reduce by 1.1%.(2)The reduction of energy consumption per unit volume of transportation will lead to the reduction of energy demand.Freight transport turnover unit energy consumption decreased by 14.3%compared with 2010,the demand for road transport energyconsumption will be reduced by 2.2%.Based on the results of the study,some suggestions are put forward,such as adjusting the industrial structure,developing the advanced technology of transportation,reducing the energy consumption per unit of transportation turnover,and increasing the proportion of new energy vehicles.