The Analysis Of Water Resources Supply And Demand Of Nansi Lake Basin In Shandong Province

Water is the source of lives,the material basis of production,and the most important part of ecological.it is a kind of valuable resources for the humanity survival and development,but also a indispensable resource guarantee the development of economy and society.However,with the growth of population,the growing demand for water resources of the development of the economy and society,water resources are facing a very grim situation in our country.The shortage of water resources,serious water pollution,the deterioration of the water ecological environment and other issues have become increasingly prominent problem,and it has become one of the bottenects restricting the development of socio-economic factors.The shortage of water resources is one of the basic national conditions of our country,water conservancy facilities weak is one of the prominent restricting Chinese economic and social development.The total water resources of 6.074 billion stere(form 1956 to 2010),the per capita water resources is less than 300 stere,the amount of water resources per capita is less than 250 stere,which belongs to the serious water resources shortage area.Based on the current situation of water resource and the existing problems in development and utilization, the thesis carried on the first and second analysis of equilibrium to future water resource supply and demand of the Nansi Lake Basin in Shandong Province. Through the analyzing of water demand and supply balances,important theory foundation and technical support are provided for the region coordinated growth between sustainable utilization of water resources and the sustainable development of the social economy with useful water resources regulation and control measures. The thesis is based on the benchmarked year of 2010 and the layout year of 2020.The main findings as follows:Firstly, this thesis analyzes the current water situation and structure and the quantity of surface water and groundwater, water resources gross and its available quantity of these years, through the survey on water resources evaluation and water resources exploitation and utilization of the Nansi Lake Basin in Shandong Province.Secondly, the forecast research on its water demand of the Nansi Lake(South Four) is conducted. By using grey system forecast model, multivariate linear regression analysis model and water quota method, this thesis predicts the water demand of 2020 and analyzes the forecasting results of the three methods.The analysis indicates, the predicated results do not meet the actual situation by the grey system, because of lacking the related information, while the other two results are rational because many factors are taken into consider.Thirdly, analysis of the balance between water resources supply and demand of 2020.According to the current water supply capacity and water demand prediction of 2020, the thesis carried on the first and second analysis of equilibrium to future water resources supply and demand of the Nansi Lake Basin,found the gap between them.Fourthly,measures to improve water resources regulation and control ability. This thesis analyzes the present situation of water utilization, water supply structure and demand structure in order to find a technology feasible, economic reasonable approach to improve water resources regulation and control ability.