Research On Energy Consumption Prediction Of Residential Building Sector In Northern Region

With the rapid economic development and the improvement of people's material living standards,global energy consumption has increased dramatically,and the accompanying energy problems have become increasingly serious.With the global warming problem,China is vigorously promoting energy conservation and protection under the dual pressure of international and domestic.One of the key policy strategies is to promote the transformation of energy structure.China is in a critical period of energy restructuring,and the residential construction sector,as one of the three major sectors,also plays an important role in China's energy conservation and emission reduction business.Based on the STIRPAT model at the regional level,this paper comprehensively analyzes the impact of five different factors on the energy consumption of urban residents in the three provinces of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei from three perspectives of population,economy and technology.The predicted values of urban building energy consumption under different scenarios in provinces can provide a more comprehensive scientific basis for the government to adopt corresponding energy-saving measures.The results of the study show that under two scenarios(the baseline scenario and the high-speed scenario),the urban building energy consumption of residents in the BeijingTianjin-Hebei region will continue to increase in the future.Second,population plays a key role in the growth of urban building energy consumption in the three provinces of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei.Among them,the increase in urban heating area will be an important factor for increasing urban residents' building energy consumption.This will bring great challenges to the building energy conservation and emission reduction in the northern region,especially the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The focus of future building energy conservation It should be placed on how to further strictly implement building energy conservation policies in various regions to vigorously promote green buildings,and at the same time,we must increase the transformation of existing high-energy buildings.This study is of reference significance for the promotion of Beijing-TianjinHebei ultra-low energy consumption building policies.