The Research On Prediction Model Of The City Civil Building Energy Consumption And Application

Architecture is one of the three major areas of energy consumption.With the advance of economic development and urbanization process,the number of the civil buildings rise rapidly,and the proportion of China’s urban residential building energy consumption is also growing,which caused great influence on China’s energy supply and environmental resources.In this context,it is necessary to make a scientific and reasonable prediction of the civil buildings energy consumption and put forward effective control measures and policy recommendations for building energy consumption.In this paper,the urban civil building energy consumption as the object of the research,are studied by using life cycle theory and system engineering theory.Firstly,macro factors affecting the urban civil building energy consumption are under analysis from 4 aspects of population,economic development,science and technology and social life.By establishing the index system of macro factors of the public buildings energy consumption in the city and applying simple correlation analysis and partial correlation analysis to determine the relationship between influencing factors of energy consumption of civil buildings.Secondly,the prediction model of the urban civil building energy consumption,based on cointegration theory,is established to discuss long-term equilibrium relationship and short-term dynamic change of the macro factors.It turns out that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the city civil building energy consumption and urbanization rate,proportion of tertiary industrialadded value,the terminal energy consumption,GDP energy per ten thousand yuan and total amount of civil building completed at the end of the year.Thirdly,through scenario analysis of urbanization rate,proportion of tertiary industrial added value,the terminal energy consumption,GDP energy per ten thousand yuan and total amount of civil building completed at the end of the year in different scenarios,the prediction model is applied to forcast the city civil building energy consumption in 2016 to 2020 under different scenarios.The prediction results imply that China’s urban civil building energy consumption in 2020 will reach 1.79-1.89 billion tons of standard coal.Finally,according to the above analysis and research results,several policy recommendations are put forward for sustainable development of the city civil buildings energy consumption in China.This study improve and perfect the theoretical system of urban civil building energy consumption and meet the demand of development of urban civil building energy consumption in the future,which has an important reference value to achieve the goal of energy conservation and emission reduction in China.