The Schedule Risk Management Countermeasures Of Railway Construction Projects

Railway engineering project has many characteristics, such as long construction cycle, complex construction environment, complex technology, huge wasting assets, and many involved parties and so on. With the increase demands on high-speed rail, moving vehicles, and other railway operation, the railway construction investment, schedule, quality pressure are increasing in recent years, which makes the railway project face with greater risk. As an important part of the railway project management, the schedule risk management of railway project directly affects the result whether the project can be completed according to expected cost, quality and schedule. Risks may result in losses and bring benefits, the key is decided by the result whether it can properly deal with the risk management and control. Practice shows that the effective and scientific progress risk management is one important prerequisite to ensure the engineering project can progress smoothly, achieve the goals of construction management as well as project management.Through consulting a large number of relevant literatures both at home and abroad, the article first introduces the definition and classification of risk, analyzes the characteristics and its impact of project schedule risk of railway construction, introduces general processes of risk identification, risk assessment, risk assessment and risk countermeasures in progress risk management, and analyzes the main technical requirements for each procedure. In the process of risk identification, besides indirect data acquisition, similar project analogy and other traditional methods to collect information, this paper comprehensively uses brainstorming, Feld method and other methods to conduct data collection and collation. By introducing affecting time T, this paper can determine the existence of risk factors, improve the collection of risk factors, and carry out estimate calculation on railway project completion probability and total schedule risk with PERT.This paper divides the railway project schedule risk factors into natural risk factors, technical risk factors and non-technical risk factors total three categories, builds a risk evaluation index system, through considering the liquidity, uncertainty and fuzziness of the construction project risk information, carries out estimate calculation on two-level weight with Analytic Hierarchy Process. Through comparative analysis of several commonly used risk assessment methods, this paper releases a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on AHP, and carries out a quantitative analysis on Guangqing intercity rail engineering construction project based on this model. It achieves the results of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation for the project, and gives out the evaluation conclusion.Finally, based on risk assessment results of Guangqing intercity rail construction project, this paper gives out the counter measures for the different risks for the sub risk factors of natural risk factors, technical risk factors and non-technical risk factors in the project.This paper carries out a more systematic study on the progress risk of railway engineering construction project, which can provide a reference for China’s railway project schedule management, so as to enhance the level of railway construction, and save social resources.