Resaech Ontraffic Mode Choice Of Urban Residents During Winter In Cold City

The structure of residents’ travel mode is an important part of urban transportation demand forecast, and the model and forecast is an important direction for the future research in the urban transport.All of this provides important quantitative data to the decision management of projects, as well as effective means of policy, planning and construction to guidethe government.Reasonable structure of residents travel can protect operational efficiency of the transport system.Undering cold weather conditions inwinter city,the efficiency of part of travel mode split reduced, and then a series of traffic problems are appearing,such as reduced road capacity,increased the difficulties of vehicle operating,reduced a large proportion of non-motorized travel,occurredfrequentlytraffic accidents, and so on,and even lead to disorder and paralysis in serioussituation.In all this state,Reasonable structure of residents travel is affected. During winter in cold city,theimportant ideas to solve the traffic problem is analysisingresidents’ travel choicesunder cold conditions.This paper is researhing on the prediction of resident travel mode split during winter in cold city.Firstly,we had a residents’ Travel Survey during winter in cold city, and compared with the summer’, then cleared the impactof cold weather to residents travel mode choice.Secondly,I analysised factors for model required under cold weather,including factors travel time, travel cost, safety, comfort and convenience, etc.Thirdly,I establishedtravel division model on the reasonable way using NL model, the virtual select limbs are non-motorized travel and vehicle travel,then analyzed the method of parameter estimation and the test of statistic settlement. Finally, based on survey data of Jilin,I calibratedthe parameters and tested the statistics using software SPSS,then reallocated the travel for status quo and predicted the ratio of travel mode for the future.Under cold conditions,thestructure of urban residents’ travel mode is directed impact onpeople’ travel efficiency who are living in winter cities.The reasonable shareing can make the traffic problemto ease during winter in cold city,and can improve the efficiency of transportation resources.Then it can maximize t role and function of the road system. Thusmore effective traffic of management strategiesultimately achieve the purpose of improving urban traffic conditions.