Research On The Share Amount Prediction Of Slow Transportation In Historical District

As the culture and the symbol of spiritual civilization in a city, the historic district as a business card show the most unique features of a city to the world. However, with the quickly process of urban development, the traffic problems of the historic blocks become the bottleneck which limits the economic development gradually. When the historic district bears the function of modern city, such as business, living, entertainment, the contradiction between the growing motor vehicle travel demand and the historical district protection is increasingly prominent. The flexible and convenient slow traffic become the main way to solve the internal travel problems gradually, and the reasonable slow traffic planning and organization become the effective way to remit the contradiction between travel demand and district protection. Therefore, slow traffic planning in historic district is particularly important in the planning and construction of its traffic system.First of all, the author made the investigation on zhengzhou, kaifeng, luoyang and other places of historical district, to discover the basic problems and the basic characteristics of historic district traffic and analyze the future development direction travel form of historical district. The slow traffic will play an important role in historical district traffic system and will be the general trend of development in the future.Secondly, the paper discussed the main factors which influence the mode choice from the angle of psychological analysis and traveler travel decision-making, and established a structural equation modeling based on mode of customer satisfaction. By measuring the variable to determine the relationship between the latent variables and the subjective decision-making. And the influence of various subjective factors in the objective was analyzed quantitatively. In order to avoid the subjectivity of impact factors, the author got the variable path coefficient obtained by calculation on the impact of each factor to travel choice weights.Finally, the author introduced the concept of generalized cost of the various factors which affect the travel mode choice unified quantify, and measured various transportation at the same time. The historical district travel dynamic game model which based on generalized maximum profit was established. At last, take the historical district of zhengzhou as an example to verify the model. And give advice and direction of the slow traffic development in the historical district based on the best forecast results and analysis.