Research On Investment Strategies Of Generation Expansion Planning Under Low-carbon Economy

With the implementation of low-carbon economy in China, the emission reduction technologies emerge as the times require in power generation industry. Among them, the investment of CO2 capture and storage(CCS) technology, wind power, solar energy and other low-carbon power generation technologies has become research hotspots in recent years at home and abroad. In the process of generation expansion planning(GEP), generation investment corporations must weigh the benefits and risks caused by uncertain factors, and then make the investment strategies to meet the demand of their own interest. Moreover, both opportunities and challenges exit in electricity market. When the generation corporation makes its investment strategy, the others’ strategies should be considered. The problem about how to realize win-win situation and satisfy the system operation constraints is worth of studying.Focusing on the above problem, the investment problem of generation has been studied and analyzed in this paper from two aspects respectively which are risks and the competitive behavior under electricity market. The main contents of this paper are as follows:At first, the theory and application of conditional value at risk(CVa R) are introduced briefly. Then, basic concepts, classification, several classical models and the application about the game theory are summarized. Those provide a certain theoretical basis for an intensive study of the GEP problem.Moreover, a model for GEP based on CVa R theory considering the high uncertainties under the background of low-carbon economy is provided in this paper. The aim of GEP is to maximize the generation company’s net profit in the planning horizon. In this model, multiple low-carbon power generation technologies are introduced and planned with traditional technologies as a whole. Three scenarios are built to analyze the effect on investment strategies caused by uncertainties. The simulation results provide planning programs under different risk levels. What’s more, the schemes have been analyzed in detail in order to offer instructions for the generation corporations.At last, the concept of electricity market is drawn on the basis of low-carbon economy, and a low-carbon GEP model is established combining with game theory. This model presents a novel updating mechanism of electricity price and carbon tax price. Through the updating mechanism, the market of power generation investment can be developed orderly in order to avoid the phenomenon of investment overheat or downturn. The simulation results show a group of investment programs when the corporations are faced with complex competition in the market and the huge emissions requirements. Also, the instruction for the investment choice of the generation corporation in future under the electricity market and low-carbon economy can be provided.