The Research On Economic Development Under Scarce Water Resources In North Of Anhui Province

The economic development is closely related to the water resources, it is common that the water resources can’t support the sustainable development due to the blind development and unreasonable industrial structure. So the cities that short of water resources must fully consider the actual capacity of water supply when make the overall planning and establish the moderate scale of economic development adapted to the water resources. The north of Anhui is extremely lack of water resources. The economic development is constrained to the shortage of water resources and the unreasonable structure of water demands, it will restrict the economic development for a long time. So it is important to measure the coordination degree between economic development and the water resources, and determine the moderate scale of economic development under the background of water resources. It is not only the important problem in the study of the economic development of Anhui, but also one of the strategies focuses of the government policy makers to.Firstly, we choose the six cities in north of Anhui as the research object to analysis the present situation of water resources and the economic development systematically during 2000 to 2013. And use the matter element model to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of the north of Anhui. The result shows that the water resources carrying capacity is poorer in north of Anhui, generally belong to the third standard. The potential to further development and utilization is very small. The shortage of water resources is a serious threat to the sustainable development of economy.Secondly, we using the variable fuzzy recognition model and constructing two index systems of water resources and economic development to measure the coordination degree of water resources with economic development. Then we choose the national average level as a reference standard to measure the coordination degree of water resources with economic scale, industrial structure and urbanization. The result shows that the coordination degree of water resources with economic development is in a state of mild disorder, but showed a trend of fluctuations rise. The coordination degree of water resources with the three subsystems are all red alert, all in a state of mild or even extreme imbalance, there is a big gap compared with the central and southern Anhui.Thirdly, we put forward the water resources drag model to measure the water resources constraints on the impact of economic development. The result shows that the economic growth will reduce 0.77% every year due to the water resources constraints. The constraints of water resources have the greatest impact of Huainan and Fu yang, an annual decrease by 2.84% and 1.35% respectively. The urbanization will reduce 0.28% every year due to the water resources constraints. Since 2006, water resources constraint effects on the process of urbanization reduce to a minimum of 0.16% in 2013.Finally, we based on the principle of balance between supply and demand, using the grey combination prediction model to predict the total of water supply in 2020. By determining the water demand of each department structure coefficient and water quota, we finally measure the moderate scale of economic scale, industrial structure and urbanization level. The results shows that the moderate scale of GDP in north of Anhui is 919.071 billion, the economic growth is 7.90%, industrial structure is 16.7:44.4:38.9, Urbanization rate is 40.10%, and puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations based on the above research.