Study On The Water Resources Shortage Risk Analysis Method

Because of low level of per capital possession of water resource and uneven distribution in time and space, the shortage of water resources turns from periodically into continuously in some valleys of Northern China. The shortage of water resource means the phenomenon of lacking water caused by the unbalance between water supply and water demand. With the development of society, it happens more frequently and affects more widely, lasting much longer, and ultimately more harmful. Therefore, risk analysis on the shortage of water resources has important significance in both people's living level improvement and local economic development.During the process of researching, carding basic concepts about the risks of water resources system is in the first place, then the qualitative description of performance indexes to risks of water resources, chosen from current available evaluation indexes. Firstly, this article gives the forecast of national economy water demand in Beishanhe Basin, using the water demand forecast model of macroeconomic water resource. Secondly, the article analyzes the natural storage quantity of flood resources, concluding an integrated estimation method of flood resources utilization potential, from the point of regarding flood into a part of water resource, and takes all potential situations of this area as a whole. Finally, according to Beishanhe Basin's data of water supply and water consumption, the balance of water supply and demand is analyzed with typical year method in the area, taking the balance after utilization of flood into consideration.On the basis of carding the concepts, steps and contents of water shortage risks, some existing calculation models about risk analysis have been simply introduced. The model of the weight Markov chain has been used to analyze the risks of water shortage in Beishanhe Basin, the Probability has been used to compile statistics about risks of water shortage in this area, and the performance indexes of water resources risk has been used in statistical description of water shortage risks in Beishanhe Basin under the supply-demand balance during the next planning year. All the above lay a foundation for the future work of risk analysis on shortage of water resources.According to the risk analysis on shortage of water resources system, all kinds of technical measurements for risk treatment and their influence are investigated. Furthermore, each kind of the technical measurement has the different contribution rate for reducing shortage of water resources. The contribution to minimizing the risk of water resources system, which the measurement of risk management made, is discussed from two aspects:water supply management and water demand management. Besides the research on technical means for risk management, the strategy for controlling the risk of water resources shortage is probed into, including the warning system of avoiding risk, self-retaining risk and shortage of water resources. It also proposes some ideas of establishing a tentative plan for drought risk.