The Emergency Management For Electric Power Systems Based On The Scenario Construction

The safety of electric power system is importantly related to the safety of the nation, the stability of the society and the dairy life of people. Along with the development of the economy, the electric power system is becoming more and more complicated and enormous. The applications of various new technologies also add more uncertainties for the safety issues. In the recent 20 years, large-scale power cut happened many times around the world. In year 2015, there were similar accidents happening in Washington, Turkey and Nagano (Japan). It caused bad influence on industrial production as well as people’s daily life. Moreover, it brought a great loss for economy and bad influence for society.Facing severe large-scale power cut, the way of ’prediction-handling’ in traditional emergency management system is not able to satisfy the needs. The new way of ’simulation-reaction’ is becoming a trend in research of this field around the world. The research for ’simulation construction method’ is at the front line in scientific research, it’s meaningful both theoretically and practically to develop electric power systems based on the scenario construction.This paper use the large-scale power cut incidents as the object of study, combining their features of wide influence, complicity, variety and high uncertainty, introducing the method of simulation in order to discuss the emergency management of electric power system based on the scenario construction.Above all, it concludes and analyzes the cause of the large-scale power cut and their evolution mechanisms. Based on this, it creates a risk assessment of the safety of power systems in order to analyze the factors for a safe system, furthermore provides the theory for selecting the simulations. Next, it predicts the results and influence of large-scale power cut. Combining the theory of system dynamics, we can predict the scale and grade of the incidents. Moreover, it concludes the main task for different process and different objects, established the evaluation process in order to give suggestions and the key decisions. At last, it uses city A as a case study for creating simulation examples in order to prove the feasibility of the electric power system based on the scenario construction.