Influence Research Of The Key Factors Of Operation Plan On Passenger Demand At The High-speed Railway

Increasing with the continuous improvement of China’s high-speed rail network, and improve the level of construction and operation. When passengers travel, they can choose the mode of transport, activities of the expansion of the scope, as a mode of transportation can not complete passenger travel, and passengers can choose two or more modes of transport to complete their trip, the formation of combined transport, resulting in the path overlapping problem. How to make the high speed railway in a variety of modes of transport with the advantages of its services in the same distance to attract more passenger flow is important and worthwhile to study the problem. Optimizing and adjusting the operation of high-speed railway is the key problem to improve the level of service and optimize the structure of passenger transport. Therefore, this paper focuses on the analysis of the impact of high speed railway passenger train plan adjustment on the demand of passenger transport, mainly including the following parts:(1) Combining the formation mechanism of passenger demand and the various factors that affect the demand of passenger transport, changes in passenger demand for high-speed railway are analyzed, such as the nature of the change, passenger demand presents stronger diversity, cross line passenger flow increased. On the basis of this, the new features derived from the change of passenger demand are analyzed.(2) As the passengers choose the travel mode of transport behavior is complex, first of all, the qualitative analysis of the factors that affect the choice behavior of travelers from the supply characteristics of transport mode and the social and economic characteristics of passengers. Then, according to the survey of passengers in Beijing and Shanghai, the data were collected and analyzed, and then the quantitative analysis of the characteristics of the passengers and the factors affecting the choice of transport mode.(3) Passenger trips may be limited by the transport capacity of the mode of transport, and therefore will choose the joint transport, in the joint transport of various modes of transport to overlap and the length of the operating path is different. To solve this problem, summarize and analyze the advantages and disadvantages of the calculation mode of transport sharing rate model, and the model results are compared and analyzed, selection can be very good to solve the problem of exponential path size Logit (EPSL) model. On the basis of this, the generalized cost function model is constructed based on the user’s utility, and the utility function of the passenger transportation mode is determined.(4) To determine the key elements of the operation scheme of high speed railway train of this thesis, and the use of MNL model, PSL model, EPSL model to calculate the passenger sharing rate of the existence of a variety of transport routes overlap between Beijing-Suzhou, and the calculation results are compared. On this basis, after adjustment for each of the key elements of research, quantitative analysis of various modes of transport of passenger sharing production rate changes, and analysis of high-speed railway operation effect of key elements of the plan of passenger demand.