The Study Of Risk Assessment For International Engineering EPC Project Based On The Fuzzy Rough Set Method

Generally speaking, International EPC General Contract Projects are far more complicated than domestic projects with greater risks, owing to its transnational nature, large investment, long construction period, multi-participant, and technological complexity, along with its connection with politics, economy, geographic environment, religious customs, international relation, exchange rate fluctuation, as well as cultural difference on project location. Therefore, strengthening the research on project risk management of International EPC General Contract Projects has great practical significance.The research object of this dissertation is risks of EPC General Contracting Project. It initially refers to relevant concepts involving EPC General Contracting model and risks. On the basic of thorough analysis about EPC General Contracting model, the dissertation discusses identification and classification of risks in International EPC General Contract Projects from five aspects, including politics, economy, nature, society, and technology. There are 34 risk factors elaborated in the dissertation. The research adopts AHP to complete subjective assignment on risk indicator weight of International EPC General Contract Projects, and collects RST to complete objective assignment on risk indicator weight, utilizing current historical data, while obtaining comprehensive risk indicator weight through setting adjustment coefficient. This method could secure a more reasonable weight allocation on risk indicators of projects, while requiring emphasis on degree of risk of all risk indicators, which leads to the construction of RST-AHP method. It classified high risk indicators, medium risk indicators, and low risk indicators, via calculated risk indicator weight. Through the rank and classification of risk indicators, more specific and effective risk-control measures could be adopted to achieve successful risk management. The dissertation choose Ethiopia Emma Highway Project as base of the case study, and concluded with four high risk indicators:water shortage, variation of work amount, currency inflation and contract risk, with detailed risk management measures against them.