| Since 2000, Beijing has entered a period of rapid construction of urban rail transit systems. From 2008 to 2014, 13 lines have been completed and put into operation. Acting as the urban core, the inner city inevitably suffers a mass of subway construction. In Dongsi Station, e.g., four subway lines converges, reflecting the contradictory dillema between super-volume subway station, strict construction codes and the scale of Hutong, the protection of historical urban texture.This study introduces scenario planning from management science as an effective method in preliminary design, and explores the possibilities of subway construction combined with the protection of the old city., based on the actual project of Subway Complex at the North Exit of Dongsi Station, Beijing Line 6.First, it sorts out the functional and typological factors of the complex project and surveys the development of Longfusi region, pointing out that the reasons for the decline are weak anti-risk ability, ignorance of social ecology, and lack of strategical diversity. Then the study proposes scenario planning as an approach of improving uncertainty cognition and management.Second, this paper reviewed theories and procedure of scenario planning, including case study, and demonstrated the applicability of Scenario planning approach on urban issues, then put forward the process of scenario planning in urban design. Through in-depth analysis of the contradictions of rail transit construction site with Longfusi region’s historical-cultural protection along with various uncertain factors, the paper noted that the policy tendencies and regional demands are the two main driving forces affecting the project development. Four scenarios are constructed, corresponding to four complex types and renewal models.Finally, coresponding to the scenario logics and related cases, it proposes reponsive design strategies for each scenario in urban, architectural and body perspectives. Then it evaluates the economic, sociological, and ecological effects of the design and furtherly provides ideas and suggestions for the future of the old city rail transit construction. |