Based On The Scenario Analysis Of Small And Medium-sized City Space Development Planning Study

Along with our country urbanization has entered into the phase of rapid development, small and medium-sized cities has become the main battlefield of the rapid development of market economy.But small and medium-sized city due to its development scale and the limits of elements gathered,and its development is vulnerable to a variety of factors related to regional environmental change or policy adjustments. Traditional urban planning often develop strategies based on the presence of the history and current situation of urban development problems,and ignore the impact of some changes to the future development of cities.Once the future development environment of the city has undergone great change,the inevitable divorces planning objectives and the reality,and lead to the effectiveness of planning, waste a lot of manpower and financial resources.Scenario planning is seen as an effective way to cope with future uncertainties and complexities of the environment.This article attempts to draw mindset of scenario planning to the planning of small and medium-sized urban space development, the transition planners accustomed way of thinking,correctly handle the relationship Between the city and a variety of uncertainty factors in the future development process, there by enhancing planning strategic,forward-looking and operability in dynamic environment,and to ensure the effectiveness of planning.This Brticle first analyzes the development status of small and medium-sized cities and the uncertainty thought influence on urban spatial development planning,points out that the urban space planning cannot adapt to the problem of uncertbinty requires,and thus leads to scenario planning methods.Then research Band expounds the origin,characteristics and operation steps of scenario planning method.On this basis, propose the value of scenario planning method used in small and medium cities Spatial Development Planning,and this paper gives the exploratory description for the process of small and medium-sized city space development planning based on the scenario planning,focus on describing the process of determining the critical uncertainties,at the same time, briefly describes the analysis of urban development background,determine the focal point Band key factor analysis, construct scenarios, evaluate scenarios and identifying strategies.Finally,in Mingguang City Spatial Development Planning,demonstrate the above methods,define operability of the method.