The Research Of Small And Medium-sized City Public Transit Planning Based On Scenario Planning Theory

Compared to big cities, small and medium-sized city public transport development path, management, as well as the status and the role of public transport are significantly different. The traditional transit planning approach focuses on the targets to meet, and lack of the analysis for the environment and possible path of public transport development. In this paper, the possibility of scenario planning theory used in strategic level and detailed transit planning of small and medium-sized city were discussed.Firstly, the theory and work flows of scenario planning were introduced, with the conclusion of traditional planning methods shortcomings, analyze the possibilities of scenario planning approach used in public transit planning; Secondly, use the scenario planning theory to establish the strategy scenario of small and medium-sized city. Then two methods were introduced to assess the critical power: probability simulation scenarios and impact analysis and uncertainty matrix key events. Combined case for Baoying County transit vision scenario interpretation, set the bus travel to the county's contribution rate as the focus, and use AHP and Fuzzy Evaluation Method for scenarios assessment, and monitor the identification mark set for the program in a timely manner update to improve the scene; Finally, scenario planning theory were used in the long-term development trends of Baoying County macro network layout and public transport vehicles, the construction of the scenarios was based on the choose of buses models and the level of public ownership, then evaluate and select the scenarios.Through the research above we can obtain: because the scenario planning pays attention to uncertainties and has the characteristics of positive and negative logical interpretation of long-term development, so it is suitable for those planning research that has much uncertain factors, many possible outcomes and can be logically analyzed. The scenario analysis is based on uncertainties, combined with the multi-factor to analyze and explore the strategic and detailed planning of the public transit, this approach enhanced the possibility of planning, and improved the ability to resist environmental risks. In this paper, exploring the application of scenario planning provides a new way to enrich the transportation planning methods.