Water Demand Forecasting And Analysis Of Water-saving Potential In Lanzhou

The production of water resources is scant and per capita water availability is very limited in Lanzhou.The contradiction of water supply and demand in Lanzhou is serious.At the same time,the sewage treated in Lanzhou is directly into the Yellow River and the recycled water utilization is low.Also,The water pollution is more serious. The dual factors of resources water shortage and waterqualityshortage have affected the sustainable of economy and society seriouslyin Lanzhou.To alleviate the water shortage and ensure the sustainable development of the urban economyin Lanzhou,the city must make the plan of water supply,water using and water-saving.The Water Demand Forecasting and Excavation of Water-saving Potential of city are the basis and purpose of urban water supply and water conservation planning. Therefore,it is very important for the city of Lanzhou to strengthen the Water Demand Forecasting and analysis of Water-saving Potential.Through data collection, Survey and data processing,the paper analyzes the water supply,water using and drainage in Lanzhou;The paper determines the BP neural network model to forecast the water demand in Lanzhou;Combining present condition in Lanzhou,the paper analyzes the water-saving potential in Lanzhou;At the last, the paper presents engineering-technical measures and managing-ensuring measures to excavate the water-saving potential in Lanzhou.In the course of the study,the paper infers the following conclusions:(1)The Industrial added value ten thousand yuan is 23.88m3/ten thousand yuan in Lanzhou in 2013.Per capita Integrated-domestic water consumption is100.25L/person·d, the water level is low overall.However, the colleges, bath industry,landscaping industry and the car wash industry in public life is seriously wasteful in water.(2)The paper employs the BP neural network model to forecast the water demand in Lanzhou.The results are that:the amount of water command is282030000m3 in Lanzhou in 2020;the amount of water command is 292860000m3 in Lanzhou in 2025.(3)Before 2025,the scale of the new water supply facilities is at least 830000m3 / d.(4)The paper analyzes the water saving potential from four aspects in Lanzhou.The results show that:the amount of water saving potential is69059800m3;the amount of water saving potential is 121598100m3.(5)On the basis of the water saving measures,the paper presents engineering-technical measures and managing-ensuring measures to excavate the water-saving potential.