Research Of Multi-modal Transit Scheduling Model Based On Passengers’ Waiting Behavior

In order to adapt to the development trends of public transportation system, the research hotspot of the public transportation scheduling problem is experiencing the change from traditional single model to multi-modal. The basic goal of dispatch is to attract more passengers, while the passengers’ travel choice is directly influenced by the service level of public transportation, and passengers’ evaluation on the bus service depends on the state of awareness in the process of travel, so how to improve passengers’ perception is the key to optimize dispatching. This state of perception is defined as “satisfaction”, and the paper focused on the stage of waiting for the bus.First of all, the paper carried out investigation for passengers’ satisfaction in conventional bus stops of Harbin. Eight factors what have significant correlation with passengers’ satisfaction were selected out by the multiple linear regression model, they are “have a companion”, “travel purpose”, “riding frequency”, “reserved waiting time”, “actual waiting time”, “waiting behavior”, “waiting period” and “waiting mood”, of which “actual waiting time” with the highest significant level of correlation. And then this paper separately discussed the relationship model between actual waiting time and passengers’ satisfaction, and found they conformed to the exponential distribution. This model divided passengers into “satisfaction” and “dissatisfied” two states taking 0T(28)7.87 as the cut-off point, that is, when passengers’ waiting time is less than 7.87 minutes they are satisfied, while when passengers’ waiting time is more than 7.87 minutes they are unhappy and dissatisfied.Then, the paper introduced value experience function of waiting psychology to quantify passengers’ satisfaction. 0T(28)7.87 was used as a time reference point, according to the results of the remaining seven psychological and behavioral characteristics variables to adjust the time reference point and sensitive coefficients of this model, and introduce the correction coefficient for model, and that is benefit to achieve the conversion process of “actual waiting time-perceptive waiting time-passenger satisfaction”. On this basis, bus scheduling model was constructed taking passengers’ optimal satisfaction as priority target and taking enterprise operating income as sub-goals. Local sensitivity analysis method was used to determine the model parameters, and constraints method, sequential decision method and the differential evolution algorithm were used to solve the multi-objective bus scheduling model.Finally, the thesis gradually discussed single scheduling, single mode scheduling and multi-modal scheduling in order, and analyzed corresponding passenger waiting time and transfer time according to the different scheduling policies. Calculation examples were respectively enumerated Aiming at three typical scheduling forms on the basis of Harbin bus passenger flow data, and the departure schedule and corresponding scheduling scheme were prepared. At last, multi-mode dispatching decision-making advice was provided based on the results of example analysis.Based on the analysis of passengers’ psychological and behavioral characteristics for waiting, the paper explored the relationship between waiting time and the passengers’ satisfaction and realized the transformation from the absolute time waiting for the bus to the perception of waiting time. The paper quantified the passengers’ satisfaction and built multimodal transit scheduling model the final taking optimal satisfaction as the goal. Research provided theoretical support for the bus real-time dispatching work from the perspectives of passengers’ psychological and behavioral characteristics, it is also beneficial to guide the related management departments and bus companies for improvement of passengers’ satisfaction.