| With the rapid development of economy, energy consumption is also constantly increasing continuously. Energy consumption brings about a huge amount of CO2 that leads to the increasing CO2 in the atmosphere, which could negatively affect our living and production. Energy-saving and emission-reduction have become a problem which can not be ignored in the process of economic development. Our land has become an important "carbon sink" in the ecosystem, which more and more aroused people’s attention. Different land use types have different effects on the emissions of CO2 absorption. Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Zone plays an important part in the Western Development of our country, and its economy grows very fast in recent years. In the process of economic development, ecological environment has also suffered threat, which causes in the destruction of the land carbon sink. Does the development and utilization of the area is within the tolerance range of its productivity or how could we combine the value of carbon sink with the mechanism of carbon emission reduction, and reduce those costs, in order to re-implement the market equilibrium of every department are the purpose of our study.The main contents of in this paper include:firstly, using the model of ecological footprint to analyze the ecological footprint per capita, ecological carrying capacity per capita and ecological deficit per capita in Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Region. And then calculate the footprint depth and footprint size per capita, estimate the natural capital in the region on the basis of that;Secondly,the carbon sequestration of lands and the carbon sink capacity of the land are calculated. Take the emissions from fossil fuels in 2010 for example and calculate the energy carbon footprint of each department;Thirdly,using the extended input-output model to calculate the needs of input and output of every department under the constrain of carbon sequestration and under the recovering of carbon sequestration;Using the price model of input-output calculates the prices of every department, the prices of carbon sequestration and the prices of recovering of carbon sequestration. And then calculate the shadow price of carbon sequestration and changes of welfare of the market on the basis.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The ecological footprint of Guanzhong-Tianshui economic zone increase sharply, fossil fuels always take the highest proportion in the constitue of ecological footprint. In the aspect of time, the ecological footprint of Guanzhong-Tianshui economic zone is 0.981 hm2 per capita in 2000,and increased by nearly 77.98%,reaches to 1.746 hm2 per capita in 2010. The ecological capacity per capita decreases year by year:from 0.273 hm2 in 2000 down to 0.228 hm2 in 2010. During this period of time, the ecological deficit per capita increases sharply with high growth rate,from 0.707 hm2 in 2000 to 1.517 hm2 in 2010, increased by nearly 1.146 times. At the same time, the footprint depth increase rapidly from3.587 in 2000 to 7.627 in 2010. The footprint size per capita maintained 0.228-0.273 hm. The change of footprint depth was not consistent with the footprint size, the capital flows had been insufficient to support the expanding consumptive demand.In 2010, Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Zone needed 7.6 times the land area in order to maintain its resource consumption.In the aspect of space, in the year of 2000, Tianshui is the only city which is in ecological-surplus state, while other regions all in ecological deficit state. In the year of 2005, Tianshui cityturns from surplus to deficit, Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Zone became ecological deficit in 2005. The situation of ecological surplus get worse in2010. In the aspect of land types, fossil fuels always takes the highest proportion in the constitue of ecological footprint. What’s more, its proportion increses sharply. The above analysis shows the fossil fuels are the main reason that makes the Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Zone unsustainable development.(2) During the time of 2000-2010, the carbon sequestration of lands and the carbon sink capacity of the land have varying degrees of change. Through the calculation, the carbon sequestration of lands are 3.746t,4.007t,3.575t in 2000,2005,2010. The carbon sink capacity of the landare 7.842mha.8.087 mha,8.066 mha in 2000,2005,2010.And take the emissions from fossil fuels in2010 for example, the energy ecological footprint of whole Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Zone is 9.439 mha, the land carbon sink capacity is 8.027 mha. In other words, the energy ecological footprint has already exceeded the land carbon sink capacity.By the analysis, it is unsustainable development state in Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Zone. Carbon dioxide goes into the atmosphere, increasing the concentration of carbon dioxide and breaking the carbon balance in ecosystem.(3) Using the extended input-output model calculate the land carbon sinks shadow price and the costs of recovering of land carbon sequestration, the total output of agriculture Forestry Animal Husbandry and Fishery Department under the constrain of carbon sequestration is higher 142.96 times than the original state. But the total output of other departments decreased about 31% compared to the original state.The input-output price model is applied to estimate the shadow price of various departments, under the constrain of carbon sequestration,the departments of land carbon sinks shadow price above zeroneed to pay a certain cost to restore carbon sink capacity, provide compensation for the departments of shadow price below zero. In the condition of the market sectors’ total welfare unchanged, the carbon sequestration shadow price of various department in Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Zone is 0.120 and the average cost of market is about 1585.912 yuan/tCO2. |
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