Study On The Regional Agricultural Flood Resilience Assessment

With the rapid growth of the world population, and increasingly scarce resources,deteriorating ecological environment, global frequency of natural disasters is graduallyincreasing and regional disaster is becoming increasingly prominent. Establishment andimprovement of the disaster resilience assessment method is the basis of carrying outpost-disaster restoration and reconstruction work, and it plays an important role in thescientific designing of recovery and reconstruction strategy and taking effective measures.This thesis takes the regional agricultural flood resilience as the research object, andthrough the quantitative characterization of both the regional agricultural environmentalconditions index and the regional agricultural system defense degree, the author hasconstructed the conceptual basis of the research on flood resilience of regional agriculture.This thesis combines the two concepts of the regional agriculture’s ability to resist severefloods (resistance) and regional agricultural recover from a heavy flood or the ability to adaptto floods, and defines the regional agricultural flood resilience as the regional agriculture’sability to survive after flood. Based on the concept, this thesis studies the regional agriculturalflood recovery process, and reveals the regional agricultural flood resilience formationmechanism and its regional differences, static and dynamic, changing nonlinearity,randomness and other features by analyzing the relationship between the main regionalagricultural flood recovery and resilience stakeholder relations. Then, based on the concept ofresilience and the characteristics of regional agricultural systems, this thesis construct amulti-level and multi-objective evaluation system resilience and resilience evaluation model,and also a more practical resilience assessment by using AHP.What’s more, this thesis selects14prefectures in Hunan Province to do and empiricalanalysis. And through the expert survey method to determine the index weight levels, thisthesis gives an empirical research based on the relevant statistical data on the establishedresilience assessment methods. We can see from the research that the evaluation method canbasically more accurately reflect the14prefectures in Hunan agricultural flood disasterrecovery capabilities. Therefore, this thesis has found the major factors of restricting the floodresilience of Hunan agriculture, and gives the corresponding countermeasures andsuggestions for strengthening ecological protection, improving the agricultural productionsystem, establishing and improving the early warning system and emergency notificationsystems. Obviously, this thesis is not only of great theoretical significance and of greatpractical significance.