| China has entered the aging society. Aging is accelerated, the aging population is large, and aging problems are vary greatly in different regions. The traditional family supporting pattern has failed to meet the social needs. As the urbanization rate rises continuously, the aging population of China in the future will mainly live in cities and towns. Combing the advantages of both family supporting and institution supporting and characterized by the low expense, community supporting is the important manner to settle the social supporting problems of China.Through summarization of Chinese and foreign government’s documents and systematic analysis of related state files and systems, development and policy evolution of the supporting service in China has been appraised and analyzed deeply in this paper, and related theories, policies, models, need patterns, cost estimation and so on, which include "construction of the health care combined senior care in social supporting service system, community supporting service policies, supporting mode and content, needs varieties and cost estimation models of social supporting service both in China and abroad. It have been analyzed and studied carefully from the multidiscipline angle; moreover, the need scale of different medical service and supporting service combined social supporting services in the future years has been forecast by building the forecasting model for the health care combined senior care in social supporting service scale. Based on the features of national urban and rural population aging variation, it has been proposed that preparation be made to deal with and settle the urban and rural population aging peak effectively, and the years between2014-2060have been selected as the forecasting period to fully explore the challenges confronting the long-term medical service and supporting service combined care in China in the future; by building the forecasting model for the medical service and supporting service combined social supporting service and referring to the experience of Qingdao, the need scale of different medical service and supporting service combined social supporting services in the future years has been forecast. It has turned out that the "family/community+family ward" mode has the largest need scale and that the medical service and supporting service combined institution model also has the fairly high need scale in either urban or rural areas.In addition, the needs for supporting wards of low, medium and top grades have been forecast from the angle of supporting needs in this paper, and the construction cost of supporting service agencies in urban communities have been estimated in view of facilities investment, land investment and service cost.Finally, the paper has proposed the medical service and supporting service combined community supporting model that should be adopted in China, i.e. developing the aged people service industry, encouraging the enterprise investment and adopting the diversified investment models to meet the supporting service needs by the senior people in urban area. |
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