Research On Relief Supplies Allocation Of Decision-making Model Based On Incomplete Information

After large-scale natural disasters, there will be some "gray box" time. At this time, the information for the affected of damage、the situation of road traffic、the demand of relief supplies is not clear. In order to achieve purpose of relieving disaster, policymakers decided to make the policy of distribution for the limited relief supplies based on incomplete information. Our country have many natural disaster, it needs to carry out in-depth research of allocation for disaster relief supplies in order to reduce casualties and property losses, achieving disaster mitigation purposes.This paper uses the emergency management theory, evidence theory to solve relief supplies incomplete information distribution problems. According to this paper, the relief supplies come into four categories:life-saving class of materials, lifestyle goods, heating supplies and warm, pharmaceutical supplies. According to AHP, forming the expert questionnaires for different types of materials under the same criteria importance comparison, the judgment matrix consistency test, which determined the weight of four relief supplies. With combining "gray box" time with incomplete information, the policymakers make a policy about the relief supplies to the affected spot demand level linguistic description. With D-S evidence theory, seeking first point of each affected basic functions on priority level of trust, and then use the rules of evidence synthesis theory, the basic function of each affected trust points are synthesized to arrive at similar intervals letter function and likelihood function, and then compare their priority, to determine the priority of each point on disaster relief supplies. For example as Wen-Chuan earthquake, there is a simulation. Finally, consider the needs of disaster relief materials to the point on the priority of the case, the priority of the affected point numerical coefficients quantify the effectiveness of disaster get the point; Establishing double objective function to emergency shortest time for the first goal, the effectiveness of relief supplies on the basis of the first target hit point when the maximum for the second goal, the establishment of relief supplies distribution function; The use of genetic algorithm to solve it. For example as Wen-Chuan earthquake, there is a simulation.