| Various types of emergencies have occurred frequently in recent years and the trends of quantities and damage go upward, which impact and threaten safety of human life and property seriously and hinder the development and progress of our society. As emergencies have characteristics of randomness, sudden, complexity, destructive, diffusion and variability etc, how to make effective emergency response will be one of the challenges humanity facing which are tough but inevitable. When emergencies appeared certain signs or just occurred, decision makers need to choose the best action from multiple actions quickly to reduce the loss caused by emergency incidents as much as possible. In addition, decision makers also need to adjust contingency plans according to the evolution of emergencies during the execution of the emergency action. Therefore, further study of the emergency plan selection and adjustment method has important practical significance. This will help decision makers make better emergency management to respond to emergencies effectively.Research on contingency plans selection and adjustment methods considering the behavior of decision makers based on regret theory and disappointment theory has been explored in this thesis. Regret is a negative emotion generated when decision makers realize that the selected action is not better than other alternatives, rather disappointment appeared when the choice has more than one result but the actual result is poor. Regret is leaded by subjective wrong decisions and emphasizes the comparison between different solutions, while disappointment is mostly caused by the external environment and emphasizes the comparison between different results of the same choice. Considering two different behaviors of regret and disappointment in the emergency plans selection and adjustment problems can better describe the psychological behavior of decision makers and facilitate decision-makers to make decisions clearly.Three aspects of research works done in this paper are as follows.(1) A class of emergency decision-making problems is refined. Contingency plan selection and adjustment problems are mainly refined by summarizing, classifying and organizing various emergency issues through literature.(2) Contingency plan selection method considering the behavior of regret and disappointment is proposed. Firstly, standardize the decision information to eliminate the impact of different dimensions, then determine the regret and disappointment reference points and calculate the utility value of the attributes. Taking the action attribute utility, regret-rejoice and disappointment-elation into account, the perceived utility of every action about each attribute in each state is calculated, and then the weighted average perceived utility is obtained. Meanwhile, confirm the regret reference point on the input costs, calculate the perceived utility of the input costs of each action. Finally, calculate the sort value to determine the optimal solution. And the example about landslide hazard is selected to verify the practicality of the proposed emergency plan selection method.(3) The contingency plans adjustment method considering the behavior of regret and disappointment is proposed. Firstly, using Bayesian theory to calculate the posterior probability of incidents; then calculate the perceived utility of the adjustment program on the disposition effect, coping losses, adjustment costs and the adjustment difficulty degree and the comprehensive perceived utility of adjustment program is achieved. According to comprehensive perceived utility of adjustment program, determine the optimal adjustment programs. Finally, the example about gas leak emergency plan adjustment is selected to verify the applicability of the method.By the end of this thesis, the main findings and conclusions and the main contribution of this paper are summarized. The limitations of the thesis and further research work are also pointed out. |
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