The Analysis Of Psychological Factors On The Unexpected Incidents In Abnormal Situations

Since the 1990s, Chinese social structure has changed dramatically, in this process, not only economic, political, social, cultural aspects undergone unprecedented changes, but also made a remarkable achievement, and people’s living standard has been improved significantly. However, while economic development ignoring the management of society, make social contradictions accumulate. Due to the pollution of environment, the economic system reform, official corruption, social security, etc. More and more people pay attention to the unexpected incidents involving mass participation, mass incidents has become prominent issues affecting the current social harmony and stability. How to apply the Scientific Development Conception to resolve the contradiction of mass incidents effectively, maintain social stability and promote economic sustainable development, has become an important subject for a various universities and government.Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Law Institute released "2014 report on the development of Chinese rule of law", research shows that the mass incidents above one hundred people incidents 871; Labor disputes, law enforcement and the improper land acquisition is the main cause of mass events. Mass Incidents caused heavy casualties and property losses, destroy the local investment environment and market order, damage the image of the government, and even political crisis. Firmly establish the scientific development concept, exploring the occurrence, development and evolution rule of Mass Incidents from the height of the construction of a harmonious society, put forward the targeted response to Mass Incidents of principles, policies and measures, to better prevent and handle Mass Incidents, and promote a harmonious society is of great significance.Thus it can be seen that the mass incidents showed the trend of high incidence in recent years, both from the participations or the impact of event is a trend of intensified. Mass incidents not only threaten the safety of public life and property, but also bring fear and insecurity to social psychology, which makes the government lose credibility, even impact the social basic value and the behavior criterion. Establish the scientific development concept, building mass emergency management systems and mechanisms, improve relevant contingency plans, promptly and properly deal with the mass incidents, effectively prevent and deal with social crisis, to become all levels of government urgent request of building a harmonious society.In China, the current mass incidents have the goal of the legitimacy and the illegal behavior, the rights group’s goal is legitimate, but there may be some illegal phenomenon in specific behavior. Especially in Chongqing Wanzhou event, Anhui Chizhou incidents, the vast majority of participants have no direct interest relationship with the events, mainly to express dissatisfaction with social injustice at the sight of injustice or ulterior motive. In mass incidents, the participants’ psychology and behavior is affected by the event, because the mass incidents is sudden, uncertainty, under serious situation, people tend to lose their psychological balance and produce psychological pressure, adumbrative cannot use conventional method to judge and deal with. The National Natural Science Foundation of China in "Unconventional Emergency Management Major Research Program" pointed out that under the pressure generated by the emergency and extreme environments, institutional culture in different constraints, human psychology will be affected, so that the decision-making and implementation process will produce deviation and irrational behavior.In domestic, most of the papers are about the definition, origin, evolution mechanism and emergency countermeasures transition in China. However, in real life, uncertainty is a basic fact, whether in the economic, political, or daily life, most of the behaviors are under the condition of uncertainty. Therefore, to apply psychology to the study of mass incidents, especially study the psychological factors influence on group in abnormal situation behavior will be very significant.In this paper, based on the characteristics of traditional mass incidents, we establish a multi-stage mass emergencies dynamic game model, and study the influence of psychological factors on the group form includes the following three points:Firstly, in a certain cultural background, the participants should consider the social cultural norms, such as the fair factor, we consider the relative yield coefficient of vulnerable groups into multi-stage dynamic game model, and then construct the multi stage dynamic game model.Second, construct a model of Multi Stage Dynamic Game with Forgetfulness. Analysis the constraint conditions that the mass incidents happen and the influencing factors in not exist, partial and whole forgetfulness. Finally, comparing the the case of Dalian PX incident as an example. The research results show that there are local forgetfulness is more conducive to social stability, have general forgetfulness prone to unexpected mass incidents.Third, the irrational emotion factors of mass incidents result the behavior deviation of the decision-making and implementation process. Considering the effect of emotional factors on the evolution of situation, first, we build the Rank-Dependent expected utility functions of superiority and vulnerable groups, we analyze the existence of Nash equilibrium of two sides under different emotions. The result shows that when the vulnerable groups fighting ability is weak and strong group with relatively strong pessimism, the two sides will achieve the ideal Nash equilibrium (cooperation, compromise); When vulnerable groups fighting ability is strong, if both sides are optimism, the either optimism help to increase cooperation (or compromise) probability; If the two sides respectively in optimism and pessimism, as the increase of intensity of any one party will reduce the probability of cooperation (or compromise). Finally, We construct the Logistic Utility model, the result shows that there not exist the mixed Nash equilibrium after considering the emotional factors.In this paper, we provide a new explanation for the mechanism of the occurrence of mass incidents from the point of view that the participants have a forgetful, optimistic or pessimistic mood, and the mood changes according to different events. The research conclusion provides a useful reference for the government departments to deal with the emergency measures in mass incidents. How to combine the latest achievements of experimental psychology, quantitative analysis of emotional factors in the emergency decision, will be the future further research.