The Risk Management Research Of Cruise Port Group Events Based On Multi Scenario

With the cruise industry eastward, C hina’s cruise industry entered a boom period, more and more tourists choose a cruise as their way of travel. But with the rapid development of the cruise, the problem has cropped up, the most prominent is one after another group of events in the cruise port in recent years. For the cruise port, cruise companies, government,it has brought great losses. And it has seriously hindered the development of C hina’s cruise industry. However, due to cruise port group events is purely Chinese Characteristics, and foreign has no prior experience to draw on. Although the cruise port group events have begun to attract the attention of scholars, but research is still less, relatively narrow perspective. Meanwhile it do not solve the problem at its roots.This paper reviews the domestic and international cruise port group events, based on risk management in the port of the application.Firstly, defined the concept of cruise port groups events, then combined with the specific case, in-depth analyze Evolutionthe cause of mass incidents factor.Then use evolutionary game theory model, analyze cruise port group events to find solutions to key factors such events.Combine scenario analysis theory and AHP- fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method importance to identify t he key events under different scenarios,to find the key methods. Thenassesse the cruise port, cruise companies and travel agencies in different loss scenarios in order to prove the necessity of pre-control risk.Finally, propose specific preventive measures according to described above, help to reduce the probability of cruise port mass events.The main conclusions are:(1)Through historical case studies,found that natural disasters are the root causes of cruise port mass incidents.Human factors are the direct cause.cognitive tourists compensation system is not standard for its underlying causes.Visitors cognition and Non-standard compensation system are Are the underlying causes.(2)Analysis of the evolution of group events by evolutionary game theoryfoundthat, standard compensation system is the key measures to solve the Group Events.(3)Combined with scenario analysis and AHP- fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, identify under two scenarios, delays in the cruise and the cruise route changes, causing an important part of group events, and to analyze the possibility of mass incidents occur when situations.(4)For the cruise port group events damage assessment found that :the longer delays, the greater loss of cruise port, travel agencies, cruise companies causd by group events.(5)On the basis of risk analysis and risk assessment, make risk pre-control measures. Through economic analysis, there is a huge economic benefit of travel agents and cruise lines when they implement risk pre-control measures.