Mode Selection Research Of “House-for-pension Scheme” Based On Urban Residents’ Willingness In Shijiazhuang City

As a result of China’s population structure and the status quo of the pension, China faces a severe condition on its pension, while the existing pension modes can’t solve these difficulties, so the innovation of the pension system is needed. "House-for-pension scheme" is a relatively new pension system arrangement. It is meaningful in China that urban residents gain pension through their houses. "House-for-pension scheme" model and introduction, to alleviate our country currently overtaxed pension status, has a positive theoretical significance and practical significance.The implementation of this pattern can be effective to the elderly homes, combining endowment insurance, and financial investment,to revitalize the old housing assets,provide pensions,give full play to the function of hose,raise the level of the elderly life."House-for-pension scheme" is the synthesis of house property, pension insurance and financial investment, which can realize multiple functions of housing, supplement social pension system, and then contribute to harmony of society. However, what factors influence the willingness of "House-for-pension scheme" for Chinese urban residents? What degree do they affect? Which pattern is feasible to Chinese urban residents in the future? These issues need to be researched.This paper takes Shijiazhuang City as the research region, and explore its feasible pattern of "House-for-pension scheme" in the future. The survey samples are randomly distributed in Yuhua District, Luancheng District and Gaocheng District, which collects urban residents’ willingness to "House-for-pension scheme" and related variables. In this paper, we adopt the combination of micro survey and macro forecast. Using binary logit econometric model for urban residents’ "House-for-pension scheme" factors analysis, the results show that, in general, the proportion of men, family per capita income of residents, housing type will have negative impacts on urban residents’ "House-for-pension scheme" willingness, while the urban household registration, education level, number of house, housing area and the cognition to "House-for-pension scheme" will have a positive influence, and age and the ratio of retirement pension to the original income is not significant. For the three specific patterns, the results have certain differences. In terms of macro forecast, calculation formula for three "House-for-pension scheme" models’ feasible probability is built. The weight for prediction are the marginal effects of the significant variables from the three regression results, respectively. The macro indicators of Shijiazhuang City are corresponding to the micro indictors, including the proportion of the male population, aging level, urbanization rate, per capita disposable income of urban households, proportion of graduates from institutions of higher learning, the average housing area for new couples, the proportion of high-grade residential housing sales volume. Using the growth rate of different macro indicators’ combinations, we build five kinds of social development scenarios, and then estimate the predicted value of each macro indictors in 2020, 2030 and 2050, respectively, as for the base year 2012, according to the corresponding growth rate in each development scenarios. Finally, taking the predicted values and their weights into the three "House-for-pension scheme" models’ calculation formula, and then the feasible probabilities are computed, which is concluded the feasibility of three kinds of "House-for-pension scheme" in future under the different development scenarios. According the selection criterion that feasible probability is relatively big and better growth prospects, we determine the feasible patterns of Shijiazhuang City during 2020-2030 are ""Selling house and then renting" and "endowment mortgage". Until around 2050, "endowment mortgage" model will become the feasible pattern.Based on the certain parameters and uncertain parameters, we construct the grading system of feasible pattern for "House-for-pension scheme" in Shijiazhuang City. The feasible probability for each pattern is computed through the grading system. According the selection criterion that feasible probability is relatively big and better growth prospects, we determine the feasible patterns of Shijiazhuang City during 2020-2030 are ""Selling house and then renting" and "endowment mortgage". Until around 2050, "endowment mortgage" model will become the feasible pattern.