A Study Of Sino-Japanese International Crisis According To Prospect Theory

In the evolution of the regional pattern of East Asia, the current case that both China and Japan become great power simultaneously has never taken place. The crises arising from disputes over territorial sovereignty and views on the history of the World War II occurred occasionally. Especially after the 2008 global financial crisis, the frequency and intensity of the Sino-Japan crisis have been unprecedented after the two World Wars. During the process of adapting to the totally new situation between the two sides, the Sino-Japan relations have been running into the "crisis management time".The Sino-Japan international crises have notable characters of uncertainty and irrationality. As the forceful behavior decision theory in the social science, the prospect theory is of enlightening significance to the research of the Sino-Japan crises. The purpose of this study is as follows:to combine the prospect theory with the basic international crisis management theory, to have a microcosmic and dynamic analysis to the Sino-Japan crisis during the recent years based on the case-study method and focused on every seedtime of crisis, and to bring forward some policy suggestions for the Sino-Japan international crisis management.By analysis, the author discovers that the worsening of the Sino-Japan relations has some portents because of the existence of some influence mechanisms such as loss aversion, negative framing and certainty effect. In the phases of the, upgrading and relaxation of the Sino-Japan crisis, there is a logic first midst and last:the decision-makers often have the reference point as base. And the formation of the reference points is affected by some variables such as system factors, national politics factors and individual factors and some other factors. When having the reference points as the base, the decision-makers tend to be risk-averse to maintain status in quo for gains but simultaneously to be risk-acceptant for losses.According to this study, in order to carry through the Sino-Japan international crisis management better, China should focus efforts in following aspects:keeping national strength increasing stably and to deepening the interdependence with Japan to have enough strategic endurance and self-confidence, analyzing and even intervening the decision reference points of the other side to take up initiative actions in the crisis management, utilizing the framing effects scientifically to form effective soft power, confronting the certainty effect calmly to pay enough attention to the US. and give more flexibility to deal with the potential third party.