Analysis On Evolution Of China’s Demographic Age Structure And The Residents’ Consumption

Since Chain’s reform and opening up, Chinese economy has maintained anaverage of10%of the high-speed growth for30consecutive years. Especially sincethe global financial crisis, the emerging market countries represented by China hasgradually becomes a strong power of pull the world economic downturn. However, atthe same time of rapid economic development, our country residents consumption haspresent a downward trend for a long time, which has become a hinder of China’seconomic growth mode transformation pulled by external demand to domesticdemand. Recently, Chinese economy is facing a series of structural imbalances. Then,looking for domestic consumption growth slow reason and solution are highlyrealistic significance to research topic. So, in this paper, we will analyze therelationship between the evolution of China’s population age structure and ratio ofconsumption from two aspects of theory and empirical, in order to provide somecertain basis to policy maker in the future.First of all, the article combed the literature of domestic and foreign about therelationship between population age structure and residents’consumption, so as to gettheory and technology support to the follow-up study. And expound the theoreticalbasis and function way. Then sum up the population age structure of China’s60yearssince the founding of the historical evolution process, characteristics anddevelopment trend. Furth-more, analyze status and changes of our country’s lowresidents’ consumption using longitudinal historical comparison method transverseinternational comparison.Secondly, based on related theory and index on the basis of comparison, weestablished a reasonable dynamic panel econometric model. Then use GMMestimation to carry on empirical research from across the country, region features andurban and rural areas basing on the data of31provinces, municipalities andautonomous regions from1998to2011in China. The analysis shows that child’sdependency ratio decreases significantly the ratio of consumption, and ageing population makes residents’ consumption rate reduced significantly. Through theanalysis of the eastern, central and west regions, we find that child’s dependency ratiohas notably positive influence both to eastern and western areas, and the degree ofinfluence to western region is greater than that to eastern. At the same time, elderlydependency ratio has significantly negative influence to east, as well as west. Butdegree of influence is opposite to child’s dependency ratio. However, both of this twodependency ratios have no impact on central region. What’s more, the estimates resultof urban and rural are basically consistent with national. Children raised level’simpact on rural is greater than that on urban, which is contrary to aging populationbring-up ratio.Finally, on the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical results, we put forwardthe following countermeasures. Firstly, correct the traditional backward thinkingmode and guide the rational consumption. Secondly, encourage the areas, which havedeveloped economy and high aging degree to take the leader in the relaxation of thefamily-planning policy. Then perfect social security system, such as endowmentinsurance, medical insurance and poverty relief, ensuring that people are being raisedwhen they become old. Last but not least, actively develop consumer credit and richvariety of credit in order to meet the demand of different age groups.