Study On Urban Population Sustainable Development Mechanism And Intelligent Prediction Of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan City

Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan city is China’s implementation of "Rise of Central China" strategy of the important objectives and content. In recent years, the rapid growth of population and limited environments increasingly acute contradictions between the space, so that the urban population of the Integration of sustainable and coordinated development problems, and affect the central region of the overall urban planning and sustainable urban development. At present, domestic and foreign population projections have done some research, but the city of Changsha, Zhuzhou and Population Development Mechanism and Prediction of just getting started, there is not a complete and effective theories and methods.Therefore, based on the National Natural Science Foundation of China[70971036] as the basis for the development of the urban population of the Integration Mechanism, take urban resources and environmental capacity of the population carrying capacity for power Changsha, Zhuzhou urban migration mechanisms and population projections studies to enhance the scale of the urban population in central prediction accuracy. The main thesis work and innovations are as follows:(1)Based on entropy theory Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan city migration dynamic mechanism was analyzed, the results show that Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan city can increase main drive force and driven force by using of technological innovation, system innovation, management innovation and knowledge innovation.(2)From the ecological capacity of the system to the population affordability perspective of the urban population of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan city, entropy effects of the combined effects of the system were analyzed, and environment combined effects of entropy effect coefficient were identified by using of functional link neural network. And the simulation results were of high reliability.(3)A complex system variable weight combination forecasting time series model was established based on fuzzy adaptive genetic algorithm and simulation analysis results of the forecasting model show that the forecasting modeling was of good performance sue h as less sample data and high precision. And its forecasting results consistent with the data from urban Agglomeration in the central region population projections object whose predictions and " urban Agglomeration regional Planning (2004～2020)".