Study On The Implementation Effect And Interprovincial Difference Of The Two Child Policy

The two child policy has been launched in 31 provinces from January 17,2014 to November 17,2014.Under this background, the system dynamics model is established on the basis of population development equation by Song Jian, to simulate population development of China and Jiangxi province from 2015 to 2050. Then, comparing the new fertility policy with the original fertility policy and cancelling fertility policy. The result show that: under the new fertility policy, the total population of China will be 1.409 billion in 2020, and reduce to 0.897 billion in 2050. The population structure will remain the obvious sharp of inverted pyramid. From the results, start new fertility policy in China is reasonable and the fertility policy can be further relaxed around 2019. However, Jiangxi province is not suitable to start the new fertility policy now only from the perspective of population development.Then, provinces classification research has been studied at the perspective of the necessity of implementing new fertility policy. Aiming at the necessary of implementing new fertility policy, firstly, the paper combs population number factors, population structure factors, economic factors and social factors based on fish-bone diagram, then analyze and quantize the factors. After acquire the weight of different factors based on entropy method we get the scores about the necessary of implementing two child policy for each province. The results show: there is obvious distinction between the provinces in our country. The provinces putted in the first category, such as Shanghai, Beijing, is eager to implement two child policy. However, some provinces like Guangxi isn’t suit to start the new policy now.Exploratory spatial data analysis was used to find the Moran’s I index of necessity of implementing two child policy is 0.3559, spatial dependence of 31 provinces is strong.Fully considering the differences in such aspects as the population among provinces, the paper studies the correlation degree of initiation time and the necessity of implementing two child policy, analyzes it on the spatial scale, and then calculates the rationality of initiation time across the country as a whole. According to the results, Shanghai is the most rational in the correlation degree, scoring 0.93709 when considering all factors and 0.95368 only consider population factor respectively. However, Jiangxi is the least rational, only scoring 0.31425 and 0.35088. The provinces in the northeast has the more rational initiation time. Most provinces consider more population factor than other factors, such as economic factor, when setting policy. As a whole, the correlation degree are 0.64207 and 0.70159, perform well. However, the score isn’t high, so we should track research it.Finally, analyzing the spatial dependence of 31 provinces from 2003 to 2013 based on spatial econometric methods. The results show that, elderly dependency ratio of 31 provinces mainland significant difference, the variation coefficients in 2003 and 2013 are 0.237102 and 0.200513 respectively. The Moran’s I index of elderly dependency ratio is strong, but have a downward trend year by year. The distribution areas of H-H move from east to mid-west, the distribution areas of L-L compress in the nouthwestern. The results through the spatial econometric model, show that urbanization rate and total population are significant positive correlation with the elderly dependency ratio; per capita consumption expenditure and the elderly dependency ratio has a significant negative correlation, and there is no significant relationship between per capita GDP and elderly dependency ratio.Five target policy suggestions have been proposed based on the above research: tracking the fertility intentions and population development, further relax the fertility policy timely; supervision of subsequent population development, especially the unreasonable provinces; propagandize the situation of province direct at the unreasonable provinces, guarantee the stability of population development; expanding research area of population development, focusing on the influence on economic and society by population; focusing on the spatical dependence of population, paying attention to the influence by neighboring provinces.