Research On The Adjustment And The Evolution Trend Of Fertility Policy In China

As a "people" policy, Family planning policy is important to human welfare, social development and national destiny. China as the world’s most populous country, the problem of population has attracted attention. In 1980 s, in order to control the excessive growth of population and according to the needs of Chinese conditions and development, the family planning becomes a basic national policy in China. With the strict implementation of the policy of family planning in several decades, China has finished the transition of population reproduction type in a short term- by the "high birth rate, high death rate and high growth" to "low birth rate, low death rate and low growth". With the development of economic society, the situation of Chinese population has undergone a fundamental change. We are faced with new problems such as sex ratio imbalance, population bonus disappears, the aging serious, family size is shrinking, even taking into account the total population may advance reached the peak population, and negative population growth, will inevitably arise into a "low fertility trap" problem.In this paper, Chinese fertility policy is the research object, the purpose is to analyze the Chinese adjustment of fertility policy trend. First, it gives an overview of the status of Chinese population, combines with historical stage of China’s economic and social development, and sorts out the development process of the birth control policy after the establishment of China; secondly, through the analysis of the new trend of population quantity, quality and structure, mainly discusses the reasons China adjusting family planning policy from the economic, social and other aspects. Then it carries on the analysis to the Chinese adjustment of fertility policy trend. And it researches about the policy effect of four "two children" policy pilot area in 1980’s and all of provinces(cities, autonomous regions) started the implementation of the "individual two-child" policy, and forecast the demographic trends until 2100 of China through the CPPS population forecast software. Therefore, in the current population situation, the fertility policy adjustment is very necessary, and it will not cause the population accumulation and the baby boom. With the rapid development of economic and social, coupled with China’s long-term implementation of the family planning policy, people’s life pressure, fertility cost and fertility concepts are changed. Even relaxing fertility policy, the actual number of birth of people is still lower than the fertility desire.The adjustment of China’s family planning policy should be combined with China’s national conditions and historical experience and accord the law of the development of China’s population. The trend of China’s population development has been formed, adjusting and relaxing the policy will not cause the population explosion. Although the adjustment of fertility policy can not solve problems such as population aging in China, the demographic dividend disappeared and so on, it can ease the pressure to a certain extent, promote the population structure to be reasonable and keep the sustained and healthy economic and social development. Therefore, to relax the one-child policy in line with China’s national conditions, but also the inevitable choice. At the same time, the problem about the population of China, natural environment, resource pressures still exist, the one-child policy is still the basic policy of our country, but it does not mean that China’s family planning policy is immutable and frozen, the formulation of national policies should be combined with the actual, but also keep pace with the times, make timely adjustment and improvement. So it can keep the population and population structure in the coordinated development of population, and gradually keep the economy, nature and population coordinated and sustainable.