Demographic Structure、Education And The Growth Performance In China

This article is based on the dual background of population aging crisis facing China as well as the "middle-income trap". Based on the panel data of 29 provinces and autonomous regions in China of 1993-2014 year, Malmquist productivity index is obtained by using the DEA method to measure total factor productivity. On the one hand, this article has researched the change of total factor productivity over the past 20 years when China’s economy has grown rapidly. On the other hand, this article has analyzed the influence of Demographic structure and education level on the total factor productivity of our country. This article puts forward some suggestions and research support in order to promote the improvement of total factor productivity and maintain rapid economic growth of China.In addition to the basic model of regression, this paper has done empirical study based on the data of 29 provinces, cities and autonomous regions, and discussed different impact of the population structure, education level of East、Middle and West region on the total factor productivity. The Malmquist productivity index is further decomposed into technical efficiency index and technical progress index. This paper has researched the mechanism of education level, population on the total factor productivity. Conclusions are as follows:(1) the total factor productivity growth in China mainly rely on technological progress, while except that technical efficiency has achieved growth in 1993-1998, from 1998 to 2014, technical efficiency has fallen behind, which hindered the growth of the total factor productivity. Total factor productivity of our country presents the obvious spatial differences. The East region at present stage still maintained a total factor productivity growth, while negative growth in the Middle and west. The growth of the East region is driven by technological progress, while the West region rely more on technical efficiency growth. (2) Social upbringing ratio has significant negative effects on the total factor productivity. Social upbringing ratio further decomposed, improving the children’s upbringing ratio has a bad impact on the total factor productivity, while the elderly upbringing ratio has no effect on the total factor productivity. (3) Improving the average education level is beneficial to the improvement of the total factor productivity, while the inequality of distribution structure of education has a bad impact on the total factor productivity. (4) The effect of population structure and education level on the promotion of total factor productivity is interactive. (5) On the one hand, foreign trade can promote the improvement of the total factor productivity, on the other hand, foreign direct investment has a bad impact on the total factor productivity. (6) There is "U" type nonlinear relationship between the urbanization and the total factor productivity. The urbanization has a "threshold effect" on the productivity growth. And when the urbanization level is low, the urbanization has a bad impact on the total factor productivity, while this is only a short-term effects, when the urbanization reaches a certain threshold, the urbanization has a good impact on the total factor productivity. (7) Rapid increase of physical capital has a bad impact on the total factor productivity. Increasing investment blindly can only lead to the economic denotative expansion rather than the improvement of internal efficiency, which cause excess capacity, low resource utilization. (8) The total factor productivity growth in the West region is more sensitive to education, not affected by the structure of population age; The total factor productivity growth in the Middle region is more sensitive to the structure of population age, not affected by education. The total factor productivity growth in the East region is more sensitive to the structure of population age and education.(9) The social upbringing ratio has influence on the total factor productivity mainly by the technological progress, and education has impact on technical efficiency.