Research On The Population Scale Safety Of Typical Ethnic Minority Areas In Southern Xinjiang

The population scale safety is to say the number of population is fit for the ecological environment carrying capacity, and in harmony with the level of social economy development. Population size is suitable for the sustainable development of the whole society. Overpopulation will oppress the carrying capacity of ecological environment,will compress the level of development of productive forces, resulting in a decline in living standards of the people, causing environmental damage, thus affecting the human survival and development in the future. But lack of population, will not create enough labor force for economic development, and will resulting in a decline in the ability to create social wealth. Moderate population size not only is the base of regional ecological environment, social and economic sustainable development, but also the premise to complete a comprehensive well-off society.This paper considered the thought of "Population Security" and the moderate population theory as a guide, the typical ethnic minority areas of southern Xinjiang-three southern states as the study area. Firstly, outlined the present population development, ecological environment and socio-economic development in this area. Secondly, this paper used the model of relative resources carrying capacity and ecological footprint law to estimate the regional optimum population of comprehensive resource and ecological optimum population. Through this two moderate population threshold, established population size security early warning model. Then,by using the population size security early warning model, empirical analysis the population size safe state of Kashi and Hotan in 2005 to 2014. The study found that, the security status of population scale in Kashi was double overloaded show as red alert in 2005 to 2014, in the unsafe range. And the security status of population scale in Hotan was overloaded, show as orange alert in 2005 to 2007. And in 2008 to 2014 the population scale exceeds the double standard that the regional optimum population of comprehensive resource and ecological optimum population, show as the red alert. From this we can see, with the continuous expansion of population scale, the number of population overload is constantly growing in ethnic minority areas of Southern Xinjiang. Population overload alarm continues to exacerbate, and the development of the entire region is in the unsafe range that population overload, thus put the pressure on the regional ecological environment, and it is not conducive to the development of social economy. Finally, according to the conclusion, combined with the population development, ecological environment and social economy status in this area, this paper put forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for the sustainable development of the whole region from two aspects of controlling the population scale and improving the population supporting capacity.