Research On The Driving Force Of China’s Country Urbanization Based On The Empirical Analysis Of Panel Data

As china is currently in a critical period with rapid urbanization, the economy andsocial structure are facing a transition. Urbanization can not only promote economicgrowth, also is the symbol of modernization,"The eighteenth" propose urbanization asthe national strategic plan to be the focus of development. At present, China’surbanization development is mainly in big cities, many of them are facingenvironmental pollution, traffic congestion and other urban disease, the county townsplay an important role as connecting the rural and the urban, they are less polluted byindustrialization, population transfer cost is lower, have big economy potential. Theyare important in attracting the rural population. Facing the opportunities and challengesthat the urbanization development brings, we should conscientiously sum up experience,understand the status, on the condition of scientific forecasting the future developmenttrend of urbanization, and explore the country region development road of urbanization.The paper takes Kunshan, Changsha and Shuangliu as three cases for empiricalanalysis. Take exploring county urbanization dynamic mechanism as the main purpose,establish the driving factors of urbanization by literature reorganizing, mainly includeGDP per capita, third industry development, industrial development, urban fixed-assetinvestment and urban-rural income ratio. Collect the panel data from1990to2012, thenanalyse the relationship and the impact trends between the urbanization and drivingfactors through Granger causality test and VAR model, and come to the followingconclusions:①GDP per capita is the primary factor to promote the development of countryurbanization. The middle and the west region economy started late, so the influence ofthe middle and the west’s country urbanization is smaller than the eastern region in theearly period, as the development of economy, country urbanization influenced byeconomy in central and western is over the eastern region in the later period.②Urban fixed asset investment represents the intervention of the government onbehalf of the intensity. For the eastern region that has a rapid development, thegovernment administrative intervention has a negative effect on the countryurbanization in the long term. For the middle and the western region whose economystarted late, the urban fixed asset investment has a positive effect on the countryurbanization. ③The Granger causality test results that the development of country urbanizationleads to the expansion of urban-rural gap which has become an important issue.④Industrial development promotes the county urbanization in the long term.Eastern industrialization started early, it steadily promotes the development ofurbanization, the middle and the west industry started late, industry has a significantpromote on urbanization in the early period, then becomes smaller gradually until astable effect.Through the research, the paper put forward to advices for improving policies andsystems, urban planning and industrial development to improve the development ofcountry urbanization.