Research On Forestry Industrial Structure Evolution Trend And Competitive Industries Selection Of Anhui Province

According to the statistics of Anhui province forestry from1996to2012, forestry industrial structure in Anhui province were analyzed by the methods of literature review, grey prediction method, the elastic analysis and dynamic share-shift analysis. Selecting forestry industry with structure advantage and competitive advantage as advantage industry, to drive the rapid and healthy development of the forestry economy in Anhui province,putting forward pertinence suggestion for the development of forestry economy in Anhui province.The content mainly includes six aspects:The first, research on the present situation of forestry industry development in Anhui province in recent years, the results show that the forestry industry in Anhui province has maintained growth trend, optimizing industrial structure development constantly; secondary industry and the second forestry industry output value has been improved.The second, the grey forecast method is adopted to forecast forestry industry output from2013to2030in Anhui province. According to the result of prediction in Anhui province,on the basis of the change of three times the forestry industry output value proportion in the total output value, Anhui province forestry industry evolution from1996to2030is divided into four stages (the first stage of the industry pattern for "one, two, three," from1996to2007; the second stage of the industry pattern of "two, one, three," from2008to2012; the third stage of the industry pattern of "two, three, one," the period of2013to2019; the fourth stage of the industry pattern of "three, two, one," period of2020-2030.).The third, each phase of the forestry industry in Anhui province elastic research is done for each phase of the forestry industry in Anhui province, contrast each stage all the influence degree of the industry of forestry output value, and comparison with the structure of the national average, the same below all industries of forestry output the influence degree. The results show that each stage in Anhui province all the influence degree of the forestry industry output value of output and industrial mode synchronization; Compared with the national average, during the second stage, three elastic coefficients of forestry industry in Anhui province is lower than the national average.The fourth, the development of forestry industry in Anhui province in the second stage is from2008to2014,"two, one, three," within the industry in the stage of the industrial structure from secondary industry output value to estimate (forecast in2013and2014, subprime forestry industry of secondary industry output value), using the method of dynamic deviation share in the second stage of forestry development in Anhui province analysis superiority industry choice, the results show that the second forestry industry and the tertiary industry is superior industry, secondary industry in the three big industry advantage industry as the forest tree breeding and planting, cultivation and collection of economic forest products, flower planting, wild animal breeding and utilization, wood processing and wood, bamboo, cane, palm, reed products manufacturing, wood and bamboo rattan furniture manufacture, forest products, chemical products, wooden handicrafts, wooden stationery and sporting goods manufacturing, tourism and leisure forestry, forestry ecological services, forestry professional technical services, public management, and other services.The fifth, predicting the secondary industry output value of three times forestry industry from2015to2015in Anhui province, and then doing share analysis on the third stage of forestry industry development in Anhui province, choosing the advantage industry at this stage for the cultivation and planting of trees, flowers planting, breeding and utilization of the wild animals, wood processing and wood, bamboo, cane, palm, reed products manufacturing, bamboo rattan furniture manufacturing, wood Mu Zhu reed pulp manufacture, forest products chemical products manufacturing, wooden handicrafts, wooden stationery and sporting goods manufacturing, tourism and leisure forestry, forestry professional technical services, public management, and other services. Comparison between the second and the third stage of advantage industry found forestry economic forest products of the first industry of secondary industry in cultivation and collection in the second stage is an advantage but not the third stage advantage industry, the first secundiparity forestry industry in the secondary industry in Mu Zhu reed pulp manufacturing industry in the second stage is not advantage industry but the third stage is the advantage industry, the third industry of secondary industry in the forestry ecological forestry service industry performance for the second stage is the third stage is not advantage industry superior industry.The sixth, to summarize this article, based on the above research putting forward some policy suggestions on the basis of the conclusion.