The Balance Between Farmland And Aquiculture Area In New Developed Area Of Zhoushan Islands Based On Food Security

Grain security has been playing an important role in keeping social stability. And protecting national grain security has been a major purpose in carrying out strictest farmland protection policy. What’s more, it’s also one of the targets when our country requires the balance of occupation and compensation of farmland by force. The improvement in the living standards leads to the change of our dietary structure and the traditional connotation of grain. The phenomenon is especially obvious in new developed area of Zhoushan Islands which has had a large number of marine aquiculture products in dietary structure. The new developed area of Zhoushan Islands is the first national district which majors in marine economy in our country. It is quite difficult for Zhoushan to realize the balance of occupation and compensation of farmland in its development in the future. Zhoushan’s land use structure has a characteristic that it has almost24,000(ha) farmland and7000(ha) aquiculture area. Considering the characteristic of land use structure in new developed area of Zhoushan Islands, the thesis tries to study the balance of farmland and aquiculture area in Zhoushan from the original intention of policy about the balance of occupation and compensation of farmland which also means to protect regional food security. This study will not only benefit the innovation of the policy about protecting regional farmland, but also do some help to promote the construction of Zhoushan. It does have high value in both theoretical and practical significance.Firstly,this article introduces the conception of Food Security, and identifies the relationship between Food Security and Nutrition Supply, Nutrition Supply and the bearing capacity of regional land. While trying to predict the supply capacity of food in new developed area of Zhoushan Islands, the thesis refers to ARIMA time series regression model to predict sown area of grain crops. Then, the thesis uses gray model to forecast the yield per unit of grain crops. And the result will be converted into relevant nutrient supply capacity. The prediction of aquiculture area is also done by ARIMA model, and the yield per unit of aquiculture is based on the principle of maximizing supply of nutrients. The final result of aquiculture prediction will also be converted into nutrient supply capacity. After then, the thesis tries to analysis the demand of Zhoushan based on population amount. The thesis uses Logistic models and Dimension Gray Recurrence Dynamic Model to predict population amount. The result of population amount will also be converted into nutrition amount. Finally, the thesis tries to judge and analysis the degree of realization of the Food Security condition in Zhoushan under different demand scenarios. And the thesis also studies the possibility and the methods of the realization about the balance of farmland and aquiculture area in the background of regional food security.The results show that:(1)The ability of cultivated food supply cannot meet the demand of food in the new developed area of Zhoushan Islands.(2)Though the production capacity of aquiculture area is greater than that of farmland, the total supply capacity based on farmland and aquiculture area cannot guarantee food demand of the new developed area of Zhoushan Islands.(3)The balance between farmland and aquiculture area which based on the supply and demand of food has different production efficiency in terms of nutritional elements.