Empirical Research On Influencing Factors Of The Price Of Commercial Residential Housing In Hunan Province

Abstract:Nowadays, with the increase in national economy and growth in housing supply, residents living conditions have improved a lot. However, high-price housing has been raised up to a social and political issue in China. Government took a series of macro-control policies to rein in house price, but the influence is weak and ineffective. In academia, scholars more focus on first-tier cities, such as Peking, Shanghai and Guangzhou, and the research remains inadequate for less developed regions. Hunan, as a typical province in central China, study of commodity house price influence factors of Hunan province is essential. This research is conducive to maintain healthy and sustainable commercial housing market, as well as provide reference for macroeconomic regulation.At very beginning, we select influence factors of commercial house price based on literature survey. Then we find the main factors of high-price commercial housing are money supply, per capita disposable income of the urban households, fixed investment, provincial GDP, real estate development investment, RMB real exchange rate, commercial house construction area, interbank weighted interest rate according to Pearson, Kendall, Spearman correlation analyses. Under correlation test, there is weak correlation between CPI and commercial house price. In the end, by constructing multi-regression model, unit root test, VAR model, co-integration test, granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition.We find that the coefficients of provincial GDP,money supply, per capita disposable income of the urban households, real estate development investment, commercial house construction area are significant positive and the coefficients are0.313,0.678,0.2713,0.148,0.223respectively. In addition, money supply is the most effective factor among others.