The Predictive Analysis Of China’s Industrial Restructuring And Employment

The employment problem which is a comprehensive, multicriteria and multifactorialproblem is a social hot issue in recent years. With the reform of economic system in ourcountry, the industrial structure changed and changed. Because of the continuous industrialrestructuring, its impact on graduate employment also raised more and more attention fromscholars. At the end of17th century, the British classical economists William proposed thatlabor force would transfer from agriculture to manufacturing and business. Since1978, theindustrial structure of our country developed reasonably, because of which the employmentstructure optimized continuously. By sorting out the development of our country’sindustrial structure and employment structure since, this essay examines its characteristicsand analyzes the general law of the development of industrial organization and employmentstructure. Based on the forward research, this essay obtains the following results bystructure deviation analysis and employment elasticity index analysis. First, the industrialrestructuring is developing to the rationalized direction,the deviation degree of the threetimes industrial restructuring gradually narrowed, the proportion of the tertiary industrygradually increased on the whole, but the industrial restructuring in our country still at theearly stage. Second, the tertiary industry had the strongest absorptive capacity, the largestemployment elasticity index, which raised and raised in the three time industrial restructing.So, vigorously developing the tertiary industry is the effective breakthrough to solve theproblem of employment. Using the relevance theory such as the grey system theory, thispaper constructs the dynamic prediction model on the relationship of the industrialrestructuring and employment structure optimizing. Then this paper simulated the modelwith the datas of our country’s industrial restructing and employment structure optimizingsince1978, and got the results that the proportion of China’s GDP for the first time in thetertiary industry increased to more than50%and its employment structure account for morethan40%by2015. The results coincided with the forwarding theoretical analysis. Thismethod is scientific and reasonable, the sorting principle is clear and intuitive and easy tograsp and popularize. Finally, this paper proposed the relevant policy suggestions to solvethe employment problem.