Prediction Of Supply And Demand For Workforce In Henan Province Along With The Evolution Of Industrial Structure

China's economic development has entered a new normal.Its speed and growth momentum are changing,and the economic structure is being optimized.Taking supply-side structural reforms as the main line,comprehensively deepening the reform to make progress while ensuring stability and the healthy operation of economy are the requirements of future development.Under this background,the economic development in Henan province is faced with numerous strategic opportunities,also faced with no small challenges and pressures.Established in the evolution of industrial structure and labor development status,this paper focuses on the effects of trying to study the situation of labor supply and demand from the theoretical and empirical angles,and also provide a new perspective of the development of labor market in Henan province.There are four types of methods were respectively used to calculate the coordination between industrial structure and employment structure in Henan province: comparative labor productivity,employment elasticity,structure departure degree and coordination coefficient.The results showed that: though the four methods calculated the coordination at different perspectives,they had coincident conclusion that there was plenty of surplus labor force in primary industry in Henan province and the employment structure was lagging behind the industrial structure so seriously that it had influenced on the coordination.The Moore value of industrial and employment structure in Henan province were calculated,and the delay time of employment structure determined by grey incidence analysis and time shifting method was 5 years.The evolution of employment structure in Henan province was predicted by GM(1,1)model with grey compositional data.By 2019,the employment proportion of second industry in Henan province will be flat with the proportion of the primary industry,the employment structure will be transformed into the "231" pattern in 2022.The employment structure in Henan province could be adjusted to the industrial structure will take at least 5 years.The supply and demand of labor have undergone profound changes in industries and regions,changing the feature of economical operation.In order to grasp the trend of supply and demand,a GM(1,1)model based on working-age population and the number of employees in the three industry has been used for forecasting.Predicted results show that the working-age population will shrink,the demand for labor exceed the supply.The gap of supply and demand is widening,and it will run up to 8 million labor by 2020.The contradiction between supply and demand will gradually appear in the future and it is necessary to guide the reform of industrial transformation through reasonable policies to ensure the improvement of employment as well as the scale and quality of population.For convenience of calculation,the consideration of many factors and indexes is simple in the quantitative analysis procedure,and different data processing methods also have some influence on the results.It is a question which deserved serious consideration to overcome these deficiencies for a more accurate assessment.