Research On Financial Crisis Early Warning Model Of A-share Manufacturing Based On Logistic Model

Since the global financial crisis in2008, first the financial industry crisis, the us,the UK Banks, investment firms have failed, and then the financial sector crisis spreadto the real economy, the world within the scope of the real economy recession, theUnited States, Europe, Japan and other countries and regions economic collapse, GDPgrowth is slow, or even negative growth, higher unemployment, increased socialinstability factors. Combined with emerging economies have also suffered hugeimpact, of bankruptcy of enterprises in our country, especially in the coastal areas ofmanufacturing a large number of bankruptcy, companies lose orders, losing theirbusiness entrepreneurs, batch batch workers lost their jobs, and from coastal areas toreturn to their hometown. Manufacturing industry as the basis for the development ofa country’s economic construction, it is essential to the steady development, and listedthe financial position of the manufacturing enterprise is closely related to thedevelopment of the enterprise. This paper mainly studies the a-share marketmanufacturing industry financial stability and financial early warning model.The full essay is divided into five parts. The first chapter introduces the researchbackground and research content and structure, indicates that the development ofChina’s manufacturing industry in national economy, the importance of stress analysisof manufacturing the meaning of financial stability and financial early warningresearch manufacturing, and to define the connotation of the financial crisis. Thesecond chapter mainly introduces the method of parameter model and the theory ofthe financial crisis. Financial crisis theory mainly introduces disaster theory andScott’s four theoretical model. Parameters in the model mainly introduced a dollarjudgment analysis model, multiple judgment analysis model and Logistic model, andthe advantages and limitations of each model. At the end of the second chapterintroduces the modeling process in this paper to use a statistical method of principalcomponent analysis (pca). The third chapter mainly introduces the present situation ofmanufacturing industry listed companies, and financial crisis causes, analyzed thecharacteristics of manufacturing listed companies financial crisis in China, andmainly analyzes the enterprise financial crisis and financial normal difference onfinancial indicators. The fourth chapter is aimed at our country manufacturing listedcompanies to establish a financial crisis early warning and Logistic model, first toselect samples, and then to choose the financial indicators in manufacturing industry,this article selects the indexes for the F score values of indicators in the model, thenusing the significance test and multicollinearity test, the selected indicators havepassed the test of significance, but the multicollinearity between the selectedindicators, using principal component analysis to solve the multicollinearity, and theprincipal component after Logistic regression model based on principal component, a new Logistic model of manufacturing industry in our country, finally, the newLogistic model to test, test of the model prediction accuracy and prediction ability.The fifth chapter summarizes the advantages and disadvantages of the new design ofthe Logistic model, analyzes the advantages and limitations of the new model, andputs forward related Suggestions on follow-up studies, is discussed.