The Effect Of Urbanization On Commercial Circulationin Chengyu Economic Zone

ChengYu economic zone become China’s fourth economic growth pole since promulgated "the regional planning of ChengYu economic zone " in 2011,its strength of comprehensive economic is the strongest in the Southwest and it has great potential development in the future. With the development of urbanization in ChengYu economic zone recent years, it is worthy of studying what changes bring about commercial circulation caused by migration of the population, consumer attitudes and the structure of employment. Previously, people do not fully realize the importance of commercial circulation, simply understood the development of urbanization is the transfer of population and urban expansion, there is no coordination with each other, so it is not pay attention to the development of commercial circulation in the process of urbanization.This paper introduces the development of commercial circulation and urbanization in ChengYu economic zone, established the urbanization evaluation index system which contains of 21 indicators on six criteria layer, using the improved entropy method to obtain the index weight, and calculate urbanization index of 25 cities in ChengYu economic zone during 2002-2013. Then, study 25 cities in ChengYu economic zone, using the total urbanization index, population urbanization index, economic urbanization index, social urbanization index, life urbanization index, space urbanization index and environmental urbanization index as explanatory variables, set up panel data model to calculate the impact of urbanization effect coefficient, and using hierarchical clustering method to analysis urbanization effects coefficient, make an analysis of different urbanization effects in different regions. Next, study ChengYu economic zone as a whole object, set up multiple regression estimates panel data model combined Panel date model and panel VAR model. Get the result that different urbanization factor bring different effect to the entire commercial circulation in ChengYu economic zone. And using impulse response analysis, variance decomposition to study the role of the dynamic urbanization effects to commercial circulation in ChengYu economic zone.Get the final conclusion:(1) there is a positive impact of urbanization effect on commercial circulation in ChengYu economic zone;(2) The effect of urbanization on commercial circulation is different in different regions;(3) the different urbanization factors have different impact strength on commercial circulation in Chongqing Economic Zone, the influence degree from strong to weak is life of urbanization, economic urbanization, population urbanization, social urbanization, spatial urbanization, environmental urbanization;(4) the impact of urbanization on commercial circulation is a dynamic process in ChengYu economic zone, different factor plays a catalytic role on commercial circulation urbanization in the development process, its relative importance has also changed. In response to these conclusions and relevant suggestions.