Empirical Research On The Urbanization And Economic Growth In Guanzhong-tianshui Economic Zone

Economic of scale and cluster is a source of economic growth, cities are the rapid regions in which production becomes large-scale and factors will be together, thus studying on the relations between urbanization and economic growth has an realistic meaning. According to our country's development plan of guanzhong-tianshui economic zone, the zone's GDP will reach to more than one third of the northwest region's in 2020, and the urbanization level will surpass to 60%, so studying on the mutual relationship between urbanization and economic growth has an important realistic meaning for the goal of acceleration to urbanization and economic growth.My study is also based on this, using related data, firstly will estimate the comprehensive scores of urbanization of the eight cities in the zone, then applying VAR model and the model of expanded production function, via time series, panel data, positively analyze two interaction relationship, finally the study gives out the conclusion and policy advice.The study contains six chapters.The first chapter is exordium, given out the background and the meaning of this study. It introduces the current situation about the relationship between urbanization and economic growth, in detail, this chapter also introduces analysis methods, internal logical framework and innovations and explanations of data selection.The second chapter has summarized relevant theories of urbanization and economic growth, explained the main classic models and mechanism of mutual promotion.The third chapter statistically describes the basic situation of economic development and urbanization in the zone, with many statistic charts and tables display, at last summes up the problems and opportunities about economic growth and urbanization development.In the forth chapter, the study has established a comprehensive score system to estimate the urbanization level via factor analysis method, calculating that xian has the highest score, shangluo has the lowest score; divided eight cities into four catalogs via cluster analysis method, the first catalog is xian, the second catalog contains xianyang, baoji, the third catalog contains weinan, yangling, tianshui, tongchuan, the forth catalog contains the only city shangluo; finally listed the reasons behind the differences.The fifth chapter positively analyzes the relations between urbanization and economic growth, using VAR model via impulse response and variance decomposition, concludes variables'impulse and contribution, in detail the conclusion that urbanization has larger influence to economic growth in this zone; then establishes the model of expanded production function by inserting urbanization variances, using fixed effect model and collecting the panel data of 8 cities from 1996-2008, via same coefficient, it works out the contribution of urbanization to economic growth, the specific equation is:In gdpi,t=-0.839407+0.629311 In urbani,t+0.117160ln labori,t+0.545883 ln capitali,t via different coefficient, it works out the flexibility of economic growth to urbanization for each city, the descending is xianyang, xian, weinan, baoji, tianshui, shangluo, tongchuan, as a result of yangling does not pass through the test of significance, so it is out of this line; finally via unit root rest and co-integration test, identifies that it is integrated in the long run among all the variables.The sixth chapter gives out the conclusion and polices.