| The production and export amount of China’s aquatic products is larger and occupies a v ery important position in the global market. In 2013, China’s aquatic products export amount j umped over $2 billion for the first time, which accounts for 16% of the world, the highest in the world for 12 years from 2002 to 2013.In 2013, the Shandong aquatic products exports rea ched $4.6344 billion in value, accounted for 22.87% in the whole country. It is a major provin ce in China’s aquatic products export.According to the survey, in recent years, the aquatic pro ducts export in Shandong is on the rise in general. The global financial crisis in 2008 has a gre at negative impact on the overall export trade, and export of aquatic products deteriorated, in s pite of this case, the aomount of shandong aquatic products exports remained a growing trend,just decline in growth rate.The development of foreign trade of aquatic products in shandong province is the main part of shandong province and even the whole China‘s agriculture develo pment. It plays a great role in foreign trade of aquatic products in Shandong province even the whole China and the entire economic development.First, the expansion of the aquatic products export in Shandong province has created a lar ge number of jobs. Secondly, foreign exchange earnings brought by aquatic products export of Shandong province has created a large amount of foreign exchange reserves in Shandong pro vince and even the whole country. In addition, the aquatic products export of Shandong provi nce also raised the export country’s consumer welfare. Finally, our country’s ever-rising trade surplus is increasing due to expanding exports of aquatic products in Shandong province.At present, our country has entered the period of reforming RMB exchange rate mechanism. Ma ny experts believe that the trend of the continued appreciation in the yuan has been formed, an d the appreciation of the renminbi would have an impact on both import and export of internat ional competitiveness. With China’s increasingly integrated into the global market, the appreci ation of RMB will inevitably significant impact to our country’s export trade. The appreciati on of the renminbi will reduce the competitiveness of aquatic products of the international ma rket, and increase the production cost of aquatic products export, including the cost of raw ma terials, and reduce the profits.Also, RMB appreciation will bring settlement risks to export ent erprises. Either of them is not conducive to exports to a certain extent.With the unordinary strategic significance of aquatic products trade in Shandong province, based on the existing literature at home and abroad, through the monetary trade balance the ory quoted international economy and trade, along with the characteristic of aquatic products t rade in Shandong, the article will fist from the angle of theoretical analysis, help to understan d the negative impact brought by appreciation of the renminbi to the aquatic products internati onal trade.On the basis of qualitative knowledge, we do empirical analysis on related data eco nometric model, research the relationship between the RMB real effective exchange rate chan ges and the international trade of aquatic products in Shandong province, and accordingly put forward relevant suggestions and countermeasures.(1) Analyzed the trend of the appreciation of the RMB and the factors which influence th e value of the yuan.The rate used by this article is RMB real effective exchange rate REER, w hich is released and calculated by the IMF, from 2006 to 2013, the exchange rate index is on t he rise. The appreciation of the renminbi appears during this period. But from the end of 2008 to the first half of 2010, the RMB exchange rate index is relatively stable, while in the second half of 2010 it is in rapid appreciation trend. In theory, the influence factors of exchange rate changes: the international balance of payments, economic growth, inflation, interest rate differ entials, financial revenue and expenditure, and foreign exchange reserves, etc.(2)Aquatic products export trade in Shandong province is studied in the scale and market structure conditions. In 2013, the Shandong aquatic products exports amount reached to $4.6344 billion, accounted for 22.87% in China. Shandong is the largest export provinces. Since 2006, the export of aquatic products in Shandong province shows continuous increase in the ov erall trend. The global financial crisis in 2008 has a great negative impact on the overall expor t trade, and export of aquatic products deteriorated, in spite of this case, the aomount of Shand ong aquatic products exports remained a growing trend, just decline in growth rate.The Shand ong aquatic products export markets are mainly in Japan, the European Union, the United Stat es and South Korea, totaling accounted for 73%. By comparison, with the emerging markets o f the association of south-east Asian nations(asean), Hong Kong, China, China Taiwan,etc, th e overall share of the proportion of export market of aquatic products in shandong province is becoming larger and larger.(3)Through empirical research to summarize the relationship between the appreciation of the RMB and aquatic products export trade in Shandong province.Through the unit root test results, the variables in the model, aquatic products export in shandong province and RMB real effective exchange rate,the two sequences are first-order single whole. RMB real effective ex change rate and export trade of aquatic products in Shandong province have a long-term co-in tegration relationship. Through the establishment of vector auto regressive model, the result s hows that the RMB real effective exchange rate of the current period has no significant impact on exports of aquatic products in Shandong province, the influence of the elastic coefficient of the lag of the RMB real effective exchange rate on the current aquatic products exports is 1.2019, shows that lag of RMB real effective exchange rate has a positive impact on the export trade of aquatic products in Shandong province, the appreciation of the renminbi has negative influence on aquatic products export trade in Shandong province, that is, when the exchange r ate drops, and the appreciation of the RMB, the export will be reduced.The appreciation of the RMB to a great extent, affects the aquatic products export in Shandong province.(4)By putting forward relevant policy Suggestions, avoid exchange rate risk, promote the healthy development of the export trade of aquatic products in Shandong province. We will d eepen reform of the RMB exchange rate system. Alleviate the pressure of the appreciation, ke eping the RMB under controll; Export manufacturers need timely and accurately form expecta tions of the RMB exchange rate fluctuation; Selection of appropriate financial instruments, av oid the risk of currency changes, including a forward contract, foreign exchange futures and f oreign exchange options etc. Implement export market diversification objective, optimize the layout of the market. Created its own brand of aquatic products, and improve the quality. Goo d use of WTO rules, protect their own rights and interests; The government should strengthen friendly relations with other countries to provide a good environment for aquatic products exp ort trade in shandong province; Industry association as an intermediary, to play a better role, a nd following the fair, the principle self-discipline to do consulting, supervision, coordination, communication and other services. |
PDF Full Text Request